Fantasy Baseball Weekend Preview: 5/4-5/5

Mets Starting Pitcher Zack Wheeler (Photo: AP)

Mets Starting Pitcher Zack Wheeler (Photo: AP)

In this space each Friday, I’ll be previewing the weekend ahead in Major League Baseball. These will come from DFS, season long, and baseball fan enjoyment perspectives. At the end of each post I’ll add in some waiver wire pick ups to make before your deadline on Sunday.

Saturday

Pitching Matchups

  • Odorizzi, MIN @ Happ, NYY

  • Wacha, STL @ Darvish, CHC

  • Leake, SEA @ Carrasco, CLE

  • Bailey, KC @ TBD, DET

  • Soroka, ATL @ Richards, MIA

  • Bassitt, OAK @ Williams, PIT

  • TBD, TB @ TBD, BAL

  • Corbin, WAS @ Arrieta, PHI

  • Miley, HOU @ Cahill, LAA (Mexico)

  • Rodríguez, SF @ Roark, CIN

  • Rodriguez, BOS @ Bañuelos, CHW

  • Wheeler, NYM @ Gonzalez, MIL

  • TBD, TOR @ Lynn, TEX

  • Weaver, ARI @ Freeland, COL

  • Hill, LAD @ Lucchesi, SD

50 represents the average on ESPN’s game score metric for pitchers. Saturday we have five pitchers above 55, indicating they should be in for well above average starts. Corbin, Hill, Carrasco, E. Rodriguez, and Soroka all fall into this category but no one touches the 60 mark. Of this group, I’ll be targeting Hill and Soroka in DFS because I think they’ll be the cheapest.

TBD v TBD in Baltimore is sure to be an electric pitching matchup. In all seriousness, TB is using the opener in both games this weekend so it’ll be important to find out which game Yonny Chirinos will be pitching in. He’s been really good this year.

Zack Wheeler is in a boom or bust matchup in Milwaukee. Helping Wheeler navigate this hitters ballpark will be his near league leading fly ball rate. If he can keep the ball in the yard he should have a good start. The Brewers offense is also sixth in the league in K%. I really like Wheeler in this matchup.

Yu Darvish and Michael Wacha meet in the North Side for a game that could take 4 hours. The pair is number one and two respectively in BB% among starters so far this year. It’s likely to be a cool day in Chicago and I’m secretly hoping that winds are blowing in so I can take a low total (7 or 7.5) over the number. Little known fact, wind doesn’t affect a hitter’s ability to walk to first base.

Chris Bassitt squares off against Trevor Williams in what should be the exact opposite of STL/CHC. Both pitchers are control oriented and should throw tons of strikes. That may bode well for the offenses though as the teams rank sixth and seventh in contact percentage in the zone. The A’s have the advantage though because they chase outside the zone far less.

Stack options are plentiful on Saturday. They include Bañuelos, Freeland, Miley, Cahill, and Leake.

Sunday

Pitching Matchups

  • Pineda, MIN @ Germán, NYY

  • TBD, TB @ TBD, BAL

  • Teheran, ATL @ López, MIA

  • Swanson, SEA @ Bauer, CLE

  • Keller, KC @ TBD, DET

  • Montas, OAK @ Lyles, PIT

  • Sánchez, WAS @ Efflin, PHI

  • Porcello, BOS @ TBD, CHW

  • Vargas, NYM @ Davies, MIL

  • Buchholz, TOR @ Smyly, TEX

  • Greinke, ARI @ Márquez, COL

  • Verlander, HOU @ Harvey, LAA

  • TBD, SF @ Castillo, CIN

  • Maeda, LAD @ Margevicius, SD

  • Wainwright, STL @ Quintana, CHC

50 represents the average on ESPN’s game score metric for pitchers. Sunday we have six pitchers at or above 55, indicating they should be in for well above average performances. Samardzija, Germán, Verlander, Bauer, Castillo, and Greinke. Castillo and Verlander are both well above 60 Game Scores. I’ll likely use one of those guys and find some value later. Bauer is likely to be overpriced.

Michael Pineda returns to Yankee Stadium on Sunday. He’ll his standard knack for allowing hard contact to the whiffle ball park but he’s not missing bats like he used to. He pumps strikes and the Yankees will be ready to pounce as the have the eighth best contact% on balls in the zone. Germán has been really impressive in his starts this year.

Julio Teheran has really upped his strikeouts so far this year. He’ll be facing a fairly strikeout prone Marlins lineup in a great pitchers park. Pablo López came into the season with a lot of buzz but he’s been disappoint so far. Teheran should have plenty of DFS value.

Frankie Montas is getting slightly overrated after his early season success. His FIP isn’t supporting he 2.97 ERA and under a K/9 ain’t helping either. The same sentence can be said about Jordan Lyles. The over should have some value here.

Stack targets include Harvey, Davies, Vargas, and Eflin.

Waiver Wire Adds

Two-start pitchers

Below are low owned pitchers slated for two-start weeks during the week of April 1. Next to each pitcher are their matchups and ESPN ownership percentage.

  • Jhoulys Chacin (WAS/@CHC) 28.4%

  • Aaron Sanchez (MIN/CHW) 27.0%

  • Vincent Velasquez (@STL/@KC) 17.8%

  • CC Sabathia (SEA/@TB) 17.6%

  • Anibal Sanchez (STL/@PHI) 8.8%

  • Jakob Junis (@HOU/PHI) 14.8%

  • Merrill Kelly (@TB/ATL) 9.2%

  • Anthony DeSclafani (SF/@SF) 7.6%

  • Martin Perez (@TOR/DET) 5.2%

  • Andrew Cashner (BOS/LAA) 5.1%

  • Felix Hernandez (@NYY/@BOS) 4.9%

  • Lucas Giolito (@CLE/@TOR) 4.6%

  • Sandy Alcantara (@CHC/@NYM) 4.6%

  • Dakota Hudson (PHI/PIT) 4.0%

  • Tyler Mahle (@OAK/@SF) 3.0%

  • Drew Pomeranz (@CIN/CIN) 2.7%

  • Antonio Senzatela (SF/SD) 2.1%

  • Ivan Nova (@CLE/@TOR) 1.3%

This is a surprisingly good list compared to the last few weeks. Aaron Sanchez is intriguing. The only thing you can guarantee about Vinny Velasquez is that you don’t know what he’ll give you. KC is a weak offense but I don’t want him in against STL. DeSclafani gets to face the listless Giants offense twice next week and deserves serious consideration for a pick up. I love Martin Perez this week and I’ll be picking him up in many places myself. Drew Pomeranz gets to face Cincinnati twice which should bring good results. I really like Tyler Mahle this week as well. He’s shown really good command and gets to pitch in two pitchers parks.

<30% owned hitters to add

  • Danny Santana, TEX (26.1%)

  • Miguel Sano, MIN (23.2%)

  • Tommy La Stella, LAA (21.1%)

  • Mitch Garver, MIN (19.5%)

  • Michael Chavis, BOS (18.0%)

  • Renato Nunez, BAL (17.8%)

  • Kole Calhoun, LAA (16.8%)

  • Franmil Reyes, SD (14.5%)

  • Eric Sogard, TOR (12.3%)

  • Ryan McMahon, COL (10.4%)

  • Nate Lowe, TB (8.0%)

  • Delino DeShields, TEX (4.6%)

Fantasy Baseball Weekend Preview: 5/11-5/12

Fantasy Baseball Weekend Preview: 4/27-4/28