Player Spotlight: Amed Rosario
I’m going to be spotlighting a couple of players per position that I find especially interesting each week. These are going to be more of a stat based, analytical deep dive on a specific player. The projections next to the player’s name are an average of THE BAT, ATC, Steamer, and ZIPS projections systems found on Fangraphs. NFBC ADP data is from the date range 02/01/2019-03/06/2019. Is Amed Rosario primed for a breakout?
Amed Rosario, NYM (ADP 145): 607 PA, 69 R, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 24 SB, .261/.301/.389/.690
Rosario has gotten some buzz this draft season about being a breakout candidate. He checks quite a few boxes that analyst look for in a potential break out. He’s a former top prospect, he’s struggled to adjust to MLB pitching thus far, and he finally started showing signs of life at the end of last season. In the final two months of last season, Rosario slashed .284/.318/.413/.731 with 5 HR and 15 SB. Certainly, fantasy viable numbers if posted over a full season.
Since the start of spring training, Rosario has done little to throw water on the breakout flames. He’s hitting .462 through 5 games with a home run thrown in. More importantly, he’s taken a walk. Obviously, this is a tiny sample but it’s all we have to go off of so far. I’m encouraged by what we saw at the end of the year. I’m also optimistic that his prospect pedigree will shine through eventually and we’ll get a 15 HR 35 SB season from him at some point. I even picked him up for $1 in an Ottoneu league last week.
Here’s why I’m not feeling so great about Rosario for 2019. During his two month “break out” at the end of 2018, his walk rate actually fell. This is highly concerning to me because; as a speed over power player, he’ll need to be on base to attempt steals. His BABIP was also around .335 in that span, which likely fueled the batting average boost. Now he is a fast player so he’s going to run high BABIPs but he was probably getting a bit lucky. I was encouraged by his .413 slugging percentage in that stretch though so maybe more pop is here to stay as he fills out his body. Adding to my pessimism is Mets’ Manager Mickey Callaway saying Rosario is going to slot in the 8th spot in the order. So when he does get one base, a pitcher will be behind him trying to bunt him over. That’ll take away a lot of stolen base attempts over the course of a season.
Overall, I’m cautiously watching Rosario during spring and hoping we see signs of a breakout. The numbers just don’t say there’s anything like that coming though. When it comes to fantasy baseball I prefer to rely on numbers instead of intangible things, like prospect pedigree, so I’m likely out on Amed Rosario at pick 145 for 2019.