I’m going to be spotlighting a couple players per position that I find especially interesting each week. These are going to be more of a stat based, analytical deep dive on a specific player. The projections next to the player’s name are an average of THE BAT, ATC, Steamer, and ZIPS projections systems found on Fangraphs. NFBC ADP data is from the date range 02/01/2019-03/13/2019. Victor Robles is still a mega-prospect.
Victor Robles, WAS (ADP 102): 562 PA, 70 R, 13 HR, 59 RBI, 27 SB, .271/.340/.425/.765
Robles was one of the top prospects in baseball heading into the 2018 season. The Nationals were likely to keep him in AAA for a couple months until the super two deadline, but he was going to be a big part of the MLB team. On April 9th he hyperextended his left elbow and was forced to miss nearly 3 months. Once he recovered he spent a month at AAA slashing .278/.356/.386/.742 with 2 HR and 15 SB, earning him a September promotion. Robles was exceptional in his 66 MLB at bats, posting a .288/.348/.525/.874 line with 3 HR and 3 SB.
With a plus-plus hit tool and speed to go along with above average power, Robles is a potential top 20 type of player in dynasty leagues. There just aren’t many players with his speed (95th percentile according to Baseball Savant), batting average, and power potential. Creator of THE BAT projection system, Derek Carty, took to Twitter this week to express his disbelief in Robles draft price for 2019.
That shows how undervalued Robles currently is in drafts for 2019. We selected him 85th in the Rotowire Online Championship last month and I’m still very happy with that price. In his small 66 PA MLB sample last year, Robles hit the ball hard (35.4%) and in the air (48.9%), showing that there is more than meets the eye with his power potential. While I don’t expect him to maintain that flyball rate, I do think he’ll improve his hard hit rate as he fills out his body. Remember, he’ll be just 22 in 2019.
Take the above projection and add about 15 points of batting average and OBP and I think you’re starting to get close to what Robles will do this year. He’s my pick for NL Rookie of the Year (sorry Chris Paddack) and he should be going much earlier in drafts.