Regression Candidate: Wilson Ramos
Each week I’ll be looking in to a regression candidate at each position. These are going to be more of a stat based, analytical deep dive on a specific player. The projections next to the player names are an average of THE BAT, ATC, Steamer, and ZIPS projection systems found on Fangraphs. NFBC ADP data is from the date range 1/01/2019-02/03/2019. The Buffalo is in New York, but should he be on your fantasy team?
Wilson Ramos, NYM (ADP 139): 401 PA, 42 R, 15 HR, 56 RBI, 1 SB, .264/.314/.434/.748
It’s hard to find regression candidates in a catcher pool so bereft of offense, but there are a couple things that could regress for Wilson Ramos in 2019. First off, his batting average was .306 in 2018 with a BABIP of .353. You can go ahead and knock at least 30 points off of that heading into this season as his previous career high was .318. That doesn’t mean he’s going to bat .230, but it’s much safer to expect the .264 batting average that the projections suggest. Now the hope would be if he gives back batting average it would boost his power numbers. He’s only played over 100 games 4 times in his 9-year career so expecting the 31-year-old to easily top that mark may be foolish, especially in the NL where he can’t be spelled as frequently at DH. He played in 111 last season and I think it’s at least a concern that he won’t reach that mark again.
Ramos seems like a safe catcher in 2019 but I view him more as a risky high-upside pick. He’s going off the board as the number 4 catcher right now and that’s far too rich for my blood. I’ll be waiting on my catcher instead of investing in The Buffalo.