Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/6/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. There are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored 120 points last night but it wasn’t good enough to cash my contests. Chris sale scored 51.45 points but he was owned in over 85% of the 900+ person 50/50 I entered. Nelson was rusty in his first start in nearly two years. Trout, Semien, and Olson were the only double digits scorers for my hitters.

P- Sale $10,600 P- Nelson $8,200 C- Jansen $2,100 1B- Olson $3,800 2B- Cano $3,200 3B- Shaw $2,800 SS- Semien $3,700 OF- Yelich $6,000 OF- Trout $5,500 OF- Davis $3,900

Early Slate: 7 Games

Weather

Link to Kevin Roth’s Forecast

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Zack Wheeler $10,500

  • Caleb Smith $9,400

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Mike Foltynewicz $8,500

  • Danny Duffy $7,900

  • Chris Archer $7,700

  • Jalen Beeks $7,600

  • Jose Quintana $7,500

  • Freddy Peralta $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Shaun Anderson $6,900

  • Anthony DeSclafani $6,800

  • Ryan Weber $6,300

  • Peter Lambert $6,300

  • Dakota Hudson $6,200

  • Daniel Norris $5,800

Wheeler and Smith make up a small premium tier today and the former is quite a bit more valuable. I’m planning on using him in my lineup. Smith is still a fine option though if you prefer him.

Folty, Duffy, and Archer are pretty overpriced and I won’t be rostering them. Don’t play Jalen Beeks. Quintana and Peralta have big time value today. I’m using Quintana with the wind blowing in a bit at Wrigley.

I like Anderson and Norris a good bit today as well. I’m actually betting on the Tigers +183 so if you want to take a swing with Norris I’m down with it. I’m staying far away from Ryan Weber.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Mookie Betts, OF $4,600

  • J.D. Martinez, OF $4,800

  • Freddie Freeman, 1B $4,900

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $4,400

  • Austin Riley, 3B/OF $5,000

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Kyle Schwarber, OF $3,700

  • Ryan O’Hearn, 1B $3,200

  • Mookie Betts, OF $4,600

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $4,400

  • Brandon Crawford, SS $3,000

My Lineup

P- Wheeler $10,500 P- Quintana $7,500 C- d’Armand $2,900 1B- Freeman $4,900 2B- Beckham $3,200 3B- Carpenter $4,400 SS- Tucker $2,800 OF- Martinez $4,800 OF- Betts $4,600 OF- Acuña Jr $4,400

Night Slate: 5 Games

Weather

Link to Kevin Roth’s Forecast

Pitchers

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Patrick Corbin $10,300

  • Jose Berríos $9,700

  • Trevor Bauer $9,400

  • Joey Lucchesi $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Tyler Skaggs $8,700

  • J.A. Happ $7,800

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Mike Fiers $6,900

  • Ariel Jurado $6,400

  • Edwin Jackson $5,000

  • David Hess $4,200

I’m in love with both Corbin and Bauer today so I’m going with two premium pitchers. Skip they’re counterparts Berríos and Lucchesi.

Skaggs is the only other pitcher on the slate that I considered. I still like the two premium guys better.

Don’t use anyone from this tier.

Hitters

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,700

  • Luke Voit, 1B $4,900

  • Gary Sanchez, C $5,500

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B $3,800

  • Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS $4,600

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Rougned Odor, 2B $3,700

  • Kendrys Morales, 1B $2,700

  • Randal Grichuk, OF $3,400

  • Shohei Ohtani, OF $3,900

  • Manny Machado, 3B/SS $3,500

My Lineup

P- Corbin $10,300 P- Bauer $9,400 C- Jansen $2,000 1B- Morales $2,700 2B- Odor $3,700 3B- LaStella $4,000 SS- Machado $3,500 OF- Trout $5,700 OF- Betts $4,600 OF- Acuña Jr $4,400

Gambling Picks

YEST: (4-5) -0.79 U

YTD: (150-121-4) 55.4% +7.87 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/7/19

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