Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/5/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. There are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup managed just 67.60 points last night. Obviously that one didn’t cash. Bumgarner disappoint and Smyly completely blew up. Báez and Puig were the only hitters in double digits. On to the next one.

P- Bumgarner $9,000 P- Smyly $6,100 C- Zunino $3,600 1B- Olson $3,800 2B- Torres $4,700 3B- Bryant $5,200 SS- Bàez $4,600 OF- Trout $5,500 OF- Puig $3,800 OF- Davis $3,600

Night Slate: 12 Games

Weather

Link to Kevin Roth’s Forecast

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Charlie Morton $11,600

  • James Paxton $11,300

  • Mike Minor $10,800

  • Chris Sale $10,600

  • German Márquez $10,300

  • Brad Peacock $9,600

  • Carlos Carrasco $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Spencer Turnbull $8,600

  • Jimmy Nelson $8,200

  • Felix Peña $7,800

  • Martin Perez $7,400

  • Trent Thornton $7,300

  • Jason Vargas $7,200

  • Yu Darvish $7,100

  • Jake Junis $7,00

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Daniel Mengden $6,900

  • Anthony DeSclafani $6,800

  • Kevin Gausman $6,700

  • Sandy Alcantara $6,600

  • Tyler Beede $6,400

  • Dakota Hudson $6,200

  • Mike Leake $6,000

  • John Means $5,800

  • Joe Musgrove $5,600

A bit of an odd pitching slate today. The premium tier once again doesn’t offer much value. In fact, Morton and Peacock are some of the worst values on the slate. Paxton and Márquez can also be thrown out. Minor and Carrasco are fairly priced but Chris Sale is my pick from this tier as he’s facing a weak Royals lineup.

Turnbull, Peña, and Thornton are getting no consideration from me. I really like Nelson and Darvish tonight. They have big time value but I’ll likely go with Nelson. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley today though.

The Bargain Bin can be mostly ignored today with the exception of Joe Musgrove. He’s got a bit of value but they may not get that game in.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Austin Meadows, OF $5,800

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,500

  • Freddie Freeman, 1B $5,400

  • Christian Yelich, OF $5,900

  • Austin Riley, 3B/OF $5,100

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Khris Davis, OF $3,900

  • Kendrys Morales, 1B $2,800

  • Travis Shaw, 3B $2,500

  • Danny Jansen, C $2,100

  • Shohei Ohtani, OF $3,800

My Lineup

P- Sale $10,600 P- Nelson $8,200 C- Jansen $2,100 1B- Olson $3,800 2B- Cano $3,200 3B- Shaw $2,800 SS- Semien $3,700 OF- Yelich $6,000 OF- Trout $5,500 OF- Davis $3,900

Gambling Picks

YEST: (2-7) -4.73 U

YTD: (146-116-4) 55.7% +8.66 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/6/19

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