Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/4/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. There are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

None

Night Slate: 15 Games

Weather

Good hitting weather in MIN/CLE and SFG/NYM. GREAT hitting weather in COL/CHC, BOS/KC, and CIN/STL. There are some rain concerns in St. Louis but it should be fine.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Stephen Strasburg $11,500

  • Hyun-Jin Ryu $11,300

  • Blake Snell $11,000

  • Frankie Montas $10,400

  • Luis Castillo $10,100

  • Chris Paddack $10,000

  • Shane Bieber $9,800

  • Noah Syndergaard $9,600

  • Kyle Hendricks $9,500

  • Masahiro Tanaka $9,300

  • Madison Bumgarner $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Griffin Canning $8,500

  • Wade Miley $8,200

  • Eduardo Rodriguez $8,000

  • Max Fried $7,800

  • Devin Smeltzer $7,500

  • Dylan Bundy $7,400

  • Chase Anderson $7,200

  • Jerad Eickhoff $7,100

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Jeff Hoffman $6,900

  • Genesis Cabrera $6,700

  • Taylor Clarke $6,500

  • Steven Brault $6,400

  • Pablo López $6,200

  • Drew Smyly $6,100

  • Clayton Richard $5,800

  • Ryan Carpenter $5,600

  • Reynaldo López $5,200

  • Glenn Sparkman $4,700

A massive slate of premium tier pitchers today makes it incredibly important that you pick the right one. There’s a few that we can throw out immediately to make this more digestible. Ryu, Montas, Castillo, Paddack, Hendricks, and Tanaka are over priced in tonight’s matchups. I love both Syndergaard and Bumgarner tonight but I’ll be going with the latter in my lineup. Strasburg is worth the high price but I’m just seeing much more value in Bumgarner. Snell and Bieber are priced fairly with little value.

Rodriguez and Anderson are the big value guys tonight from the middle tier. You can throw out Smeltzer and Bundy. The others are priced fairly enough but there’s no need to use them once your lineups.

The Bargain Bin is actually pretty stocked tonight. Both López’s (I swear these guys always pitch on the same day) are solid values tonight. The biggest value in the slate and a lock for my lineup tonight is Drew Smyly. He’s facing a putrid O’s lineup that can be exploited.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B $5,600

  • Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF $5,800

  • Tommy Pham, OF $5,200

  • Christian Yelich, OF $5,900

  • Kris Bryant, 3B/OF $5,200

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Khris Davis, OF $3,600

  • Danny Jansen, C $2,100

  • Travis Shaw, 3B $2,500

  • Willy Adames, SS $3,400

  • Yasiel Puig, OF $3,800

My Lineup

P- Bumgarner $9,000 P- Smyly $6,100 C- Zunino $3,600 1B- Olson $3,800 2B- Torres $4,700 3B- Bryant $5,200 SS- Bàez $4,600 OF- Trout $5,500 OF- Puig $3,800 OF- Davis $3,600

Gambling Picks

YEST: (0-1) -0.68 U

YTD: (144-109-4) 56.9% +13.39 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

I’m eying Toronto +178 as well but I’m expecting the line to keep climbing.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/5/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/31/19