Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/12/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. There are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored 122.40 points last night which was good enough to cash my contest. Hudson was terrific but Perez was just okay. The offense was carried by 30 points from Minch and 22 from Ohtani. Dozier also chipped in 10.

P- Perez $6,700 P- Hudson $6,200 C- Jansen $2,300 1B- Muncy $4,500 2B- Dozier $2,600 3B- Arenado $5,600 SS- Story $5,800 OF- Bellinger $5,400 OF- Bryant $5,400 OF- Ohtani $3,900

Night Slate: 8 Games

Weather

Link to Kevin Roth’s Forecast

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Justin Verlander $11,300

  • Mike Soroka $10,900

  • Jose Berrios $10,300

  • Joey Lucchesi $9,600

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Zach Eflin $8,700

  • Merrill Kelly $8,000

  • Brandon Woodruff $7,600

  • Jordan Yamamoto $7,500

  • Danny Duffy $7,400

  • Mines Mikolas $7,200

  • Mitch Keller $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Tommy Milone $6,900

  • Shaun Anderson $6,600

  • Edwin Jackson $5,300

  • Daniel Norris $5,000

  • David Hess $4,100

Another night where the premium starters are priced too high. I’d consider Verlander and Lucchesi but there’s not a ton of value. Stay away from Soroka completely.

The tip end of the middle tier is more of the same. It’s not until we get down to Danny Duffy and Miles Mikolas that we find some gems. I’m pairing these two tonight and will be looking to load up on hitting. Don’t use Mitch Keller.

Daniel Norris actually has a ton of value down at $5,000. He’s a good alternative to Duffy if you wanted to go even cheaper.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B $4,200

  • Nelson Cruz, OF $4,800

  • Bryce Harper, OF $4,200

  • Randal Grichuk, OF $4,200

  • Freddie Freeman, 1B $5,600

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Danny Jansen, C $2,500

  • Chris Davis, 1B $2,900

  • Travis Shaw, 3B $2,300

  • Mac Williamson, OF $2,900

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B $4,200

My Lineup

P- Duffy $7,400 P- Mikolas $7,200 C- Hedges $2,700 1B- Smoak $4,800 2B- Merrifield $4,800 3B- Guerrero Jr $4.200 SS- Villar $4,600 OF- Acuña Jr $5,300 OF- Cruz $4,800 OF- Grichuk $4,200

Gambling Picks

YEST: (2-4) -1.2 U

YTD: (164-143-5) 53.4% +4.06 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/13/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/11/19