Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/11/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. There are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored 131.80 points last night which was good enough to cash my contest. Sale was excellent again and Alcantara was just fine. Hoskins and Truner each had over 20 points while Dahl chipped in 10.

P- Sale $10,900 P- Alcantara $6,900 C- Lucroy $2,500 1B- Hoskins $4,200 2B- Sanchez $2,600 3B- Muncy $2,700 SS- Turner $5,000 OF- Dahl $5,300 OF- Bryant $5,100 OF- Gonzalez $3,000

Night Slate: 15 Games

Weather

Link to Kevin Roth’s Forecast

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Chris Paddack $10,600

  • Luis Castillo $10,400

  • Patrick Corbin $10,300

  • Trevor Bauer $9,900

  • Kenta Maeda $9,700

  • Freddy Peralta $9,200

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Brad Peacock $8,800

  • Spencer Turnbull $8,600

  • Mike Foltynewicz $8,500

  • Chris Archer $8,100

  • Darwinzon Hernandez $7,900

  • Mike Fiers $7,800

  • Mike Leake $7,600

  • Jalen Beeks $7,600

  • Ariel Jurado $7,500

  • Jake Arrieta $7,400

  • Jakob Junis $7,200

  • John Mean $7,100

  • Trent Thornton $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Felix Pena $6,800

  • Martin Perez $6,700

  • Jose Quintana $6,500

  • Jon Duplantier $6,300

  • Dakota Hudson $6,200

  • Manny Banuelos $6,000

  • Peter Lambert $5,600

  • Elieser Hernandez $5,000

Paddack and Bauer are priced fairly tonight. Not much value. Castillo, Maeda, and Peralta are severely over priced tonight and should be ignored. I’m considering Corbin but there are a ton of valuable options that are a lot cheaper.

The middle tier is chock full of stack targets and poor values. Arrieta, junis, and Thornton are the only guys I’m even considering.

The Bargain Bin is very fruitful tonight. Martin Perez is a huge value and will certainly be in my lineup. I’m then deciding between Hudson and Hernandez. I’ll choose Hudson as he’s favored by quite a bit in the game.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Jaiver Baez, SS $5,600

  • Kris Bryant, 3B/OF $5,400

  • Kyle Schwarber, OF $5,200

  • J.D. Martinez, OF $4,900

  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B $5,600

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Danny Jansen, C $2,300

  • Khris Davis, OF $3,700

  • Travis Shaw, 3B $2,600

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B $3,500

  • Manny Machado, 3B/SS $3,600

My Lineup

P- Perez $6,700 P- Hudson $6,200 C- Jansen $2,300 1B- Muncy $4,500 2B- Dozier $2,600 3B- Arenado $5,600 SS- Story $5,800 OF- Bellinger $5,400 OF- Bryant $5,400 OF- Ohtani $3,900

Gambling Picks

YEST: (3-2) +0.55 U

YTD: (162-139-5) 53.8% +5.26 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 6/12/19

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