Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/9/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 124.65 points yesterday which was good enough to cash in all of my contests. Great pitching performances from Robbie Ray and Brandon Woodruff led the way for this lineup. Dozier and Arcia has double digit points while Christian Yelich went yard and scored 29 points.

P- Ray $9,100 P- Woodruff $7,700 C- Diaz $3,400 1B- Goldschmidt $4,300 2B- Dozier $3,600 3B- Carpenter $4,000 SS- Arcia $3,400 OF- Yelich $5,800 OF- Harper $4,500 OF- Polanco $4,100

The cash kept flowing in the night slate as the below lineup scored 154.75 points. That was good enough for some big money in my contests. Sale and Peacock both scored over 40 points while Cron and Mookie each homered and scored 23+. On Tuesday I needed hitting to bail my pitchers out but yesterday my pitchers led the way. That’s why I prefer to spend on high priced pitching.

P- Sale $10,400 P- Peacock $8,600 C- Maile $2,700 1B- Cron $3,700 2B- Castro $2,800 3B- Anderson $3,200 SS- Baez $5,400 OF- Betts $5,400 OF- Pederson $4,700 OF- Bradley Jr. $3,100

Early Slate: 5 Games

Weather

There’s a bit of rain in CHW/CLE but it should play without interruption. LAA/DET has a higher chance of delay but should be fine. MIA/CHC has winds blowing hard out to center. SF/COL has temps in the 30s with possible rain and snow. It’s an ugly game but they might get it in.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Carlos Carrasco $10,200

  • Yu Darvish $9,500

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Chris Bassitt $8,800

  • Manny Bañuelos $8,100

  • Trevor Richards $7,900

  • Tanner Roark $7,600

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Kyle Freeland $6,700

  • Trevor Cahill $6,600

  • Ryan Carpenter $6,000

  • Derek Holland $5,800

Carrasco is a must own in this early slate due to the lack of other options. I’m passing on Yu Darvish because the wind is howling out at Wrigley.

Bassitt, Bañuelos, and Richards are horribly miss-priced and shouldn’t be owned by anyone. Roark is going to be my pick to pair with Carrasco.

Kyle Freeland has a bit of value because of the cold and wind but I doubt they play that game.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,600

  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B $5,400

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B $5,800

  • Trevor Story, SS $5,600

  • Kris Bryant, 3B/OF $5,500

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Neil Walker, 1B $3,300

  • Curtis Granderson, OF $3,100

  • Brian Anderson, 3B/OF $2,900

  • Starlin Castro, 2B $2,900

  • Jeimer Candelario, 3B $3,200

Lineup Updates

Stacking the above Marlins will be very profitable today and allow you to insert Trout into your lineup. Granderson may be the best value I’ve ever seen today. UPDATE: So frustrating but Granderson is out today.

My Lineup

P- Carrasco $10,200 P- Roark $7,600 C- Peréz $3,100 1B- Walker $3,300 2B- Castro $2,900 3B- Anderson $2,900 SS- Báez $5,400 OF- Trout $5,600 OF- Bryant $5,500 OF- Puig $3,400

Night Slate: 5 Games

Weather

No issues

Pitchers

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Rich Hill $9,700

  • Mike Minor $9,400

  • Patrick Corbin $9,200

  • Mike Soroka $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • J.A. Happ $8,100

  • Luke Weaver $8,000

  • Michael Wacha $7,600

  • Joe Musgrove $7,300

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Wade Miley $6,800

  • Mike Leake $6,000

Hill and Corbin are both good values tonight as they matchup against each other. I don’t understand why Mike Minor is priced so highly. Soroka is a tad over priced as well.

Happ and Weaver are fairly priced. No value there. It looks like I’m going to have to pair Wacha with Corbin. I really don’t want to but he has a lot of value today. Musgrove is a fine alternative I just prefer Wacha.

Don’t use Miley but Leake is a sneaky valuable play tonight.

Hitters

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Freddie Freeman, 1B $4,600

  • Alex Bregman, 3B $4,700

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $4,200

  • George Springer, OF $5,000

  • Ozzie Albies, 2B $4,800

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Tyler White, 1B $3,000

  • Jung-Ho Kang, 3B $2,900

  • Jose Altuve, 2B $4,300

  • Alex Bregman, 3B $4,700

  • Robinson Chirinos, C $3,500

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Corbin $9,200 P- Wacha $7,600 C- Mathis $2,500 1B- White $3,000 2B- Altuve $4,400 3B- Bregman $4,700 SS- Swanson $4,100 OF- Gallo $5,400 OF- Springer $5,000 OF- Acuña Jr $4,200

Gambling Picks

YEST: (2-1) +0.47 U

YTD: (65-51-3) +4.61 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/10/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/8/19