Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/8/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 125.50 points last night which was good enough to cash in all of my contests. Syndergaard only scored 9.50 points but he blew McHugh out of the water. McHugh pitched in a strong -9.25 points! I’m done with him for now. The reason this lineup was able to miraculously cash was all hitting. Cervelli, Belt, and Polanco all scored between 13-19 points. JD Martinez threw in 24. Justin Turner put the team on this back with 51 points.

P- Syndergaard $10,100 P- McHugh $8,200 C- Cervelli $3,000 1B- Belt $4,400 2B- Altuve $4,300 3B- Turner $3,700 SS- Galvis $3,700 OF- Martinez $5,100 OF- Polanco $4,200 OF- Bradley Jr $3,200

Early Slate: 4 Games

Weather

No problems. Wind blowing in pretty heavily in CHW/CLE.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Charlie Morton $10,100

  • Jack Flaherty $9,500

  • Robbie Ray $9,100

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Jerad Eickhoff $8,600

  • Brandon Woodruff $7,700

  • Nick Kingham $7,300

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Jeremy Hellickson $6,100

  • Shelby Miller $5,800

Pitching is gross this morning. Robbie Ray is the best option from the premium tier but they’re all about the same. I’ll just take the cheaper one.

Brandon Woodruff is the best value today and I’ll pair him with Ray. I’m out on Eickhoff and Kingham.

Don’t play these Bargain Bin pitchers.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Christian Yelich, OF $5,800

  • Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B $4,900

  • Starling Marte, OF $4,800

  • Joey Gallo, OF $5,700

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B $4,300

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B $4,300

  • Travis Shaw, 3B $3,100

  • Odubel Herrera, OF $3,200

  • Bryce Harper, OF $4,500

  • Jedd Gyrko, 2B/3B $3,500

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Ray $9,100 P- Woodruff $7,700 C- Diaz $3,400 1B- Goldschmidt $4,300 2B- Dozier $3,600 3B- Carpenter $4,000 SS- Arcia $3,400 OF- Yelich $5,800 OF- Harper $4,500 OF- Polanco $4,100

Night Slate: 8 Games

Weather

SF/COL will almost certainly be PPD. Everything else should be fine.

Pitchers

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Chris Sale $10,400

  • Clayton Kershaw $10,200

  • Matt Boyd $9,500

  • Mike Foltynewicz $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Tyler Skaggs $8,800

  • Brad Peacock $8,600

  • Kyle Hendricks $8,400

  • Sonny Gray $8,200

  • Jon Gray $8,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Kyle Gibson $7,700

  • Trent Thornton $7,300

  • Jorge Lopez $6,800

  • Brett Anderson $6,500

  • Jose Urena $6,000

  • Derek Holland $5,800

  • Andrew Cashner $5,400

Chris Sale is far and away the top pitcher of the night against the Orioles. Kersahw is fairly priced but Boyd isn’t a great value. Don’t use Folty he’s a really poor value.

Skaggs, Gray, Gray, and Gibson are all fairly priced. Not too much value with them. I really like Hendricks tonight coming off his elite start against the Cardinals. I also like Peacock tonight.

Lopez, Holland, and Cashner are hard passes tonight. Urena and Anderson are both decent values tonight.

Hitters

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Christian Yelich, OF $5,800

  • Kris Bryant, 3B/OF $5,200

  • Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF $5,800

  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B $5,300

  • Trevor Story, SS $5,600

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Jackie Bradley Jr, OF $3,100

  • Danny Jansen, C $2,700

  • Randal Grichuk, OF $3,900

  • Starlin Castro, 2B $2,800

  • Brian Anderson, 3B/OF $3,200

Lineup Updates

I’m not going to blow up a lineup that I really like over a catcher. I’m switching Jansen ($2,700) our for Luke Maile ($2,700) since the latter is starting in his stead for Toronto. Neither were likely to give me much.

I haven’t used C.J. Cron ($3,700) yet this season but he’s hitting fifth and I’m going with him tonight. Joey Votto ($3,600) is still very cheap and he’s hitting second in Oakland. Miguel Cabrera ($3,600) is facing a lefty and hitting third tonight. If you want a super cheap 1B, Marwin Gonzalez ($3,200) is a fine option.

Starlin Castro ($2,800) is super cheap tonight and hitting fifth against the Cubs. I’m using him over Chris Ownings ($2,900) hitting sixth and Josh VanMeter ($2,500) hitting 9th. Jose Altuve ($4,400) is a good option if you spend some more money at second base.

I’m not crazy about using two Marlins hitters but Brian Anderson ($3,200) is hitting second and has a lot of value tonight. Other cheap options include Zack Cozart ($2,500) and VanMeter. Eugenio Suarez ($4,300) would be my pick if I could spend more.

Javy Baez ($5,400) is another guy that hasn’t been in one of my lineups yet this year but I’m breaking that streak today. He’s hitting cleanup and I think he’s gonna go yard. Freddy Galvis ($3,900) is also an option along with Jorge Polanco ($4,700).

My outfield trio is Mookie Betts ($5,400), Joc Pederson ($4,700), and Jackie Bradley Jr ($3,100). I also considered Curtis Granderson ($3,400) leading off, Randal Grichuk ($3,900) hitting third, and Max Kepler ($4,300).

My Lineup

P- Sale $10,400 P- Peacock $8,600 C- Maile $2,700 1B- Cron $3,700 2B- Castro $2,800 3B- Anderson $3,200 SS- Baez $5,400 OF- Betts $5,400 OF- Pederson $4,700 OF- Bradley Jr. $3,100

Gambling Picks

YEST: (3-3-1) -0.05 U

YTD: (63-50-3) +4.14 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/9/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/7/19