Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/7/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 69.05 points yesterday. I was due for a stinker as this slate snaps a seven slate winning streak. Still really frustrating given how good I felt about the pitchers. All of the hitters besides Seager flopped.

P- deGrom $10,200 P- Hamels $9,000 C- Maldonado $2,400 1B- Goldschmidt $4,300 2B- Altuve $4,400 3B- Shaw $3,000 SS- Seager $3,600 OF- Martinez $5,100 OF- Grichuk $4,100 OF- Pearce $3,600

Night Slate: 13 Games

Weather

Not really any PPD risk tonight but there’s a few rain spots. PHI/STL has a small chance for a delay, and SFG/COL has a largely chance of a delay or late start. The weather in Chicago is gross today so SP have more value in MIA/CHC.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Stephen Strasburg $10,600

  • Jose Berríos $10,400

  • Noah Syndergaard $10,100

  • Hyun-Jin Ryu $9,800

  • Caleb Smith $9,500

  • Aaron Nola $9,200

  • Jon Lester $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Max Fried $8,800

  • Griffin Canning $8,500

  • Collin McHugh $8,200

  • Daniel Norris $7,700

  • Madison Bumgarner $7,600

  • Danny Duffy $7,300

  • Aaron Sanchez $7,200

  • Hector Velasquez $7,100

  • Jalen Beeks $7,100

  • Tyler Mahle $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Taylor Clarke $6,900

  • Mike Fiers $6,800

  • Steven Brault $6,700

  • Antonio Senzatela $6,500

  • Dakota Hudson $6,300

  • Cal Quantrill $5,700

  • Adrian Houser $5,700

  • Adrian Simpson $5,600

  • David Hess $4,800

Thor is the pitcher to own tonight. He’s far and away the best value here on the board. Strasburg, Ryu, and Nola are all fairly priced so they don’t provide much value. Berríos is a big time stay away for me. Jon Lester also has really good value.

Fried and Canning are both a little too risky for me tonight. Collin McHugh has a lot of value but it’s hard to trust him after recent his rocky starts. You can cross Norris, Duffy, Sanchez, and Velasquez off your list immediately. They will hurt you tonight. MadBum in Coors is a risk but the weather looks good for pitching there tonight. Beeks and Mahle are fine options if you want to go cheap.

I’m avoiding the Bargain Bin entirely tonight. Houser has value against a depleted Nationals lineup if you must pick a very cheap pitcher.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • J.D. Martinez, OF $5,100

  • Michael Chavis, 3B $4,900

  • Mookie Betts, OF $5,500

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,600

  • Jose Altuve, 2B $4,300

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Josh VanMeter, 2B/3B $2,600

  • J.D. Martinez, OF $5,100

  • Brandon Belt, 1B $4,400

  • Travis Shaw, 3B $3,000

  • Jackie Bradley Jr, OF $3,100

Lineup Updates

Francisco Cervelli ($3,000) hitting seventh tonight against Adrian Sampson is my pick at catcher. I think Grandal ($3,900) has good value as well hitting cleanup.

Brandon Belt ($4,400) is the top first basemen tonight in Coors Field. I’ll slide him into my 1B slot as long as he’s in the lineup. Votto ($3,500) and Carpenter ($3,800) are both leading off and are good options as well. If you want super cheap, Marwin Gonzalez ($3,200) has some value.

Jose Altuve ($4,300) is once again underpriced. He’s hitting for power and no average so it’s certainly a risky play but it’s one I’m taking. Dozier ($3,400) hitting sixth and Joe Panik ($3,900) leading off are two cheaper options. Stevie Wilkerson ($2,900) is extremely cheap as usual if you feel like doing that.

Travis Shaw ($2,900) is so cheap tonight but he’s batting down in the seven whole. I’m looking towards Justin Turner ($3,700) hitting second against a lefty. I also like Miguel Andujar ($3,900) cleaning up and Vlad Guerrero Jr ($3,600) hitting fifth.

Corey Seager ($3,700) should be hitting fifth today and I don’t mind him against a lefty. Jorge Polanco ($4,300) is a good value hitting second. I also like Freddy Galvis ($3,700) leading off. UPDATE: No Seager, going with Galvis.

I’m using J.D. Martinez ($5,100), Gregory Polanco ($4,200), and Jackie Bradley Jr ($3,200) tonight in the outfield. I also considered Eddie Rosario ($4,400), Yasiel Puig ($3,900), Mac Williamson ($3,400), and Randal Grichuk ($3,800).

My Lineup

P- Syndergaard $10,100 P- McHugh $8,200 C- Cervelli $3,000 1B- Belt $4,400 2B- Altuve $4,300 3B- Turner $3,700 SS- Galvis $3,700 OF- Martinez $5,100 OF- Polanco $4,200 OF- Bradley Jr $3,200

Gambling Picks

YEST: (0-4) -3.31 U

YTD: (60-47-2) +4.19 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/8/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/6/19