Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/6/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 91.65 points yesterday which was good enough to cash my contests.

P- Turnbull $7,900 P- López $7,700 C- Castillo $3,400 1B- Aguilar $3,900 2B- Kipnis $3,400 3B- Ramirez $4,200 SS- Lindor $4,700 OF- Yelich $5,600 OF- Martinez Jr $4,700 OF- McCutchen $4,500

Night Slate: 9 Games

Weather

Should be good to go today

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Gerrit Cole $10,700

  • Jacob deGrom $10,200

  • Max Scherzer $10,000

  • Blake Snell $9,700

  • Walker Buehler $9,400

  • Chris Paddack $9,200

  • Cole Hamels $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Vince Velasquez $8,800

  • Kevin Gausman $8,400

  • Marcus Stroman $8,000

  • Merill Kelly $7,800

  • Miles Mikolas $7,500

  • John Means $7,500

  • Jakob Junis $7,300

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Jhoulys Chacin $6,900

  • Martin Perez $6,600

  • Sandy Alcantara $6,300

  • Josh Smith $4,000

Cole, deGrom, and Scherzer headline a night of aces around the league. Of the trio, deGrom has the most value in my opinion. Snell is fairly priced but there’s more value on the board. I’m passing Buehler and Paddack tonight even though we all love both young pitchers long term. Cole Hamels is the biggest value of the night so I’ll be pairing him with deGrom tonight.

Velasquez, Gausman, Means, and Junis are poor values tonight. Stroman, Kelly, and Mikolas aren’t real great values either. The medium tier is pretty barren today.

Chacin has a little value if you want a cheap pitcher. That’s it for the Bargain Bin.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • J.D. Martinez, OF $5,100

  • Michael Chavis, 3B $4,900

  • Mookie Betts, OF $5,500

  • Jose Altuve, 2B $4,400

  • Brandon Lowe, 2B $4,800

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B $3,800

  • J.D. Martinez, OF $5,100

  • Corey Seager, SS $3,600

  • Travis Shaw, 3B $3,000

  • Jackie Bradley Jr, OF $3,100

Lineup Updates

I currently have Travis d’Arnaud ($2,700) as my catcher tonight. The Dodgers haven’t released their lineup tonight so I may need to make some changes if he’s not included. I’ll be looking at Martin Maldonado ($2,400) and Francisco Mejia ($2,700) as cheap replacements. UPDATE: Going with Maldonado.

I’m using Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300) in my first base spot. He’ll be hitting second for the Cards against Vince Velasquez. I also considered Matt Carpenter ($3,800), Chris Davis $3,100, and Renato Nuñez ($4,000).

Jose Altuve ($4,400) is far and away the best option at second base tonight. Cheaper options that have value include Stevie Wilkerson ($2,900), Starlin Castro ($3,000), and Ian Kinsler ($3,200).

Travis Shaw ($3,000) has big time value tonight hitting 5th. He’s off to a slow start but we know he has power. Brian Anderson ($3,100) is a good option facing a lefty and hitting third. I also like Rio Ruiz ($3,400) hitting fifth against the Red Sox Josh Smith.

I currently have Corey Seager ($3,600) in my lineup at SS. Again, there’s no Dodgers lineup at the time of this writing but I expect he’ll be in it. Back up options include Chris Taylor ($3,400) and Miguel Rojas ($3,100) who’s leading off against a lefty.

My three man outfield tonight consists of J.D. Martinez ($5,100) and Randall Grichuk ($4,100) both hitting third. I’m also using Steve Pearce ($3,6006 against the lefty John Means. I also considered Bryce Harper ($4,500), Ben Zobrist ($3,400), and Jackie Bradley Jr ($3,100).

My Lineup

P- deGrom $10,200 P- Hamels $9,000 C- Maldonado $2,400 1B- Goldschmidt $4,300 2B- Altuve $4,400 3B- Shaw $3,000 SS- Seager $3,600 OF- Martinez $5,100 OF- Grichuk $4,100 OF- Pearce $3,600

Gambling Picks

YEST: (2-0) +1.0 U

YTD: (60-43-2) +7.49 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/7/19

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