Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/30/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. There are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored 75.10 points which was not good enough to cash my contest. Paddack and Smyly both busted while the offense was sluggish. Matt Olson, Senzel, and Pence were the lone double digit scorers.

P- Paddack $10,100 P- Smyly $7,600 C- Mathis $2,200 1B- Olson $3,800 2B- Peraza $3.100 3B- Suárez $4,900 SS- Machado $3,600 OF- Pence $5,300 OF- Senzel $4,900 OF- Puig $4,200

The below lineup scored 83.95 points which wasn’t good enough to cash. López was solid but Buehler busted pretty badly. Zeros from four players certainly didn’t help. Turner, Bryant, and Pham were the double digit guys.

P- Buehler $9,600 P- López $6,600 C- Smith $2,000 1B- Alonso $3,400 2B- Russell $3,500 3B- Arenado $5,600 SS- Turner $4,400 OF- Bryant $5,300 OF- Acuña Jr $5,000 OF- Pham $4,700

Night Slate: 7 Games

Weather

MIL/PIT looks like it will have a late start and they may not play it. BOS/NYY is a no go for me tonight. I’m expecting a PPD as of now.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Hyun-Jin Ryu $11,200

  • Chris Sale $10,800

  • Mike Minor $10,300

  • Charlie Morton $10,000

  • Carlos Carrasco $9,500

  • Martin Perez $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Felix Peña $7,500

  • J.A. Happ $7,400

  • Chase Anderson $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Yusei Kikuchi $6,800

  • Jason Vargas $6,400

  • Joe Musgrove $6,000

  • Jakob Junis $5,800

  • Manny Bañuelos $5,600

A very top-heavy pitching slate offers very little value from the premium tier. Carrasco however, is the lone bright spot and he’ll certainly be in my lineup.

The unusually small middle tier also offers very little value. Chase Anderson is the only pitcher I’d consider here.

The Bargain Bin may be fruitful tonight. I like Kikuchi as my second pitcher but Musgrove and Bañuelos have good value as well.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,700

  • Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF $5,800

  • Joey Gallo, OF $5,600

  • Francisco Lindor, SS $4,800

  • Justin Turner, 3B $4,200

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Juan Lagares, OF $2,000

  • Chris Owings, 2B/OF $2,100

  • Travis d’Arnaud, C $2,200

  • Rougned Odor, 2B $3,900

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B $3,900

My Lineup

P- Carrasco $9,500 P- Kikuchi $6,800 C- d’Arnaud $2,200 1B- Encarnación $4,100 2B- Owings $2,100 3B- Ramírez $3,900 SS- Lindor $4,800 OF- Trout $5,800 OF- Gallo $5,600 OF- Choo $5,300

Gambling Picks

YEST: (1-3) -1.19 U

YTD: (129-91-4) 58.6% +15.62 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/31/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/29/19