Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/3/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Last Night’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 123.35 points yesterday which was good enough to cash my contest. Thor had a massive day, scoring 46.25 points in his complete game shutout. He also hit a HR for the only run of the game but we don’t get points for that! Kinsler carried the offense with 30 points for just $2,900. He was leading off, showing why lineup spots are important.

P- Price $10,100 P- Syndergaard $9,400 C- Gomes $3,700 1B- Bour $3,800 2B- Kinsler $2,900 3B- Machado $3,900 SS- Adames $3,200 OF- Conforto $4,700 OF- Acuña Jr $4,400 OF- Grichuk $3,800

Night Slate: 13 Games

Weather

TB/BAL is a little risky for pitching. The hitters should be fine though. OAK/PIT is a very, very risky game for hitters and pitchers. There will be a late start and possible PPD. TOR/TEX could see some thunderstorms but it’s unclear at this point.

UPDATE: OAK/PIT should be good to go. They’ll likely do a late start and play the rest from there. Musgrove ✅

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • James Paxton $10,300

  • Clayton Kershaw $10,100

  • Chris Sale $9,900

  • Tyler Glasnow $9,600

  • Matt Boyd $9,300

  • Mike Minor $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Kevin Gausman $8,400

  • Sonny Gray $8,200

  • Shane Bieber $8,000

  • Steven Matz $7,600

  • Robbie Ray $7,500

  • Jerad Eickhoff $7,400

  • Brandon Woodruff $7,300

  • Joe Musgrove $7,200

  • Eric Lauer $7,100

  • Reynaldo López $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Yusei Kikuchi $6,800

  • Kyle Gibson $6,700

  • Trent Thornton $6,600

  • Jorge López $6,500

  • Jose Ureña $6,400

  • Tyler Anderson $6,300

  • Jeremy Hellickson $6,200

  • Tyler Beede $6,100

  • Brett Anderson $5,800

  • Dan Straily $5,500

This is a really fun slate for pitching. Paxton has a good bit of value but he’s not my pick today. Kershaw is fairly priced but again, not my pick. Chris Sale once again has massive value. I’m assuming he’ll be used in 70%+ of leagues so he may not be a GPP play but he’s a must in cash games. I’m out on Glasnow today. Boyd and Minor both have fine value.

Gausman and Gray are fairly priced today facing weak offenses. Bieber’s got big value today but I’m a little weary of him in general this year. Avoid Matz, Ray, Eickhoff, Woodruff, Lauer, and López. Joe Musgrove is my second pitcher pick today. He’s way underpriced and should have a good day. If Musgrove’s start gets banged (very possible), I’m going to pay up for Matt Boyd.

I’m not really fond of anyone in the Bargain Bin today. We don’t know how long Kikuchi will pitch. I’m intrigued Beede but I can’t use him today. Brett Anderson is the only guy I’d consider I’d you want to be super cheap. Stack against Straily, Hellickson, and Thornton.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Brandon Lowe, 2B $4,800

  • Tommy Pham, OF $5,000

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B $5,500

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $4,600

  • Trevor Story, SS $5,600

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Jesus Aguilar, 1B $3,800

  • Bryce Harper, OF $4,600

  • Brandon Crawford, SS $2,700

  • Ryan Braun, OF $4,100

  • Rougned Odor, 2B $3,800

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Sale $9,900 P- Musgrove $9,200 C- Cervelli $3,000 1B- Aguilar $3,800 2B- Odor $3,800 3B- Arenado $5,500 SS- Crawford $2,700 OF- Pham $5,000 OF- Harper $4,600 OF- Martinez $4,400

Gambling Picks

YEST: (3-0) +1.5 U

YTD: (53-38-2) +6.83 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

STL -112, WAS/PHI o9 -120, TB/BOS ML parlay +130

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/6/19

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