Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/29/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. There are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored 100.55 points which was good enough to cash my contests. Richards led the way with 25.95 points while Gonzales finished with -0.40. I was glad I rolled the dice on the rain with Cardinals hitters because Goldy and Ozuna both went deep. Will Smith and Harper each chipped in double digits as well.

P- Richards $8,200 P- Gonzales $6,000 C- Smith $2,100 1B- Goldschmidt $4,100 2B- Hernández $3,400 3B- Arenado $5,900 SS- DeJong $4,500 OF- Trout $5,800 OF- Ozuna $4,800 OF- Harper $4,300

Early Slate: 4 Games

Weather

PIT/CIN has a chance of an in game delay or late start. Decent hitting weather. SD/NYY has good pitching weather.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • James Paxton $10,700

  • Chris Paddack $10,100

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Griffin Canning $8,300

  • Drew Smyly $7,600

  • Daniel Mengden $7,300

  • Anthony DeSclafani $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Wade LeBlanc $6,600

  • Steven Brault $5,500

As usual with a small slate, it’s tough to find value pitchers. I’m going to use Paddack but I’m not thrilled with it. He and Paxton are a coin toss so I’ll go with the cheaper one.

Smyly is going to follow Jose Leclerc in today’s game and I’m all over him as my second pitcher. Canning and Mengden are “meh.” DeSclafani has some value but the weather is keeping me off of him.

Don’t use LeBlanc or Brault

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Eugenio Suárez, 3B $4,900

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,500

  • Luke Voit, 1B $4,400

  • Yasiel Puig, OF $4,200

  • Bryan Reynolds, OF $4,700

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Yasiel Puig, OF $4,200

  • Kendrys Morales, 1B $2,700

  • Manny Machado, 3B/SS $3,600

  • Shohei Ohtani, OF $3,500

  • Jeff Mathis, C $2,200

My Lineup

P- Paddack $10,100 P- Smyly $7,600 C- Mathis $2,200 1B- Olson $3,800 2B- Peraza $3.100 3B- Suárez $4,900 SS- Machado $3,600 OF- Pence $5,300 OF- Senzel $4,900 OF- Puig $4,200

Night Slate: 9 Games

Weather

DET/BAL should play but there may be an in game delay or late start. STL/PHI will likely have some sort of delay and a PPD is possible. In avoiding players in that game for now. ARI/COL needs to be checked on before lock but they’ll likely play it.

Pitchers

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Blake Snell $11,300

  • Madison Bumgarner $9,900

  • Walker Buehler $9,600

  • Noah Syndergaard $9,300

  • Kyle Hendricks $9,200

  • Aaron Nola $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Kevin Gausman $8,300

  • Robbie Ray $8,200

  • Trent Thornton $8,000

  • Wade Miley $7,800

  • Anibal Sanchez $7,200

  • Genisis Cabrera $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • John Means $6,900

  • Pablo López $6,600

  • Jeff Hoffman $6,300

  • Reynaldo López $5,900

  • Glenn Sparkman $5,700

  • Ryan Carpenter $5,400

We find two pitchers with big value right out of the gate tonight with Bumgarner and Buehler. Snell and Nola have some value but I like the others better. Avoid Syndergaard and Hendricks.

Avoid all pitchers from the middle tier. Stack against Miley, Sanchez, and Cabrera.

Both López’s have big value tonight but I prefer Pablo and will pair him with Buehler.

Hitters

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $5,00

  • Austin Meadows, OF $5,600

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B $5,600

  • Freddie Freeman, 1B $5,200

  • Trevor Story, SS $5,200

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Maikel Franco, 3B $3,400

  • Matt Adams, 1B $3,800

  • Will Smith, C $2,000

  • Starlin Castro, 2B $2,500

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B $4,300

My Lineup

P- Buehler $9,600 P- López $6,600 C- Smith $2,000 1B- Alonso $3,400 2B- Russell $3,500 3B- Arenado $5,600 SS- Turner $4,400 OF- Bryant $5,300 OF- Acuña Jr $5,000 OF- Pham $4,700

Gambling Picks

YEST: (2-4) -1.09 U

YTD: (128-88-4) 59.3% +16.81 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/30/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/28/19