Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/28/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. There are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

None

Main Slate: 13 Games

Weather

STL/PHI has a decent chance of a delay. It’s not clear right now how high that chance is. It’s great hitting weather if they play it. CLE/BOS is much more worrisome. I doubt they get this one in so I’m avoiding players from this game.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Stephen Strasburg $11,800

  • Frankie Montas $11,300

  • Rich Hill $10,800

  • Matt Boyd $10,300

  • Lucas Giolito $9,900

  • David Price $9,400

  • Martin Perez $9.100

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Nick Pivetta $8,900

  • Dylan Bundy $8,500

  • Ryan Yarbrough $8,300

  • Trevor Richards $8,200

  • Max Fried $8,100

  • Steven Matz $8,000

  • Jeff Samardzija $7,700

  • Jon Lester $7,500

  • Nick Tropeano $7,400

  • Corbin Martin $7,100

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Marco Gonzales $6,900

  • Adam Wainwright $6,700

  • Zach Davies $6,500

  • Clayton Richard $6,200

  • Brad Keller $6,000

  • Merrill Kelly $5,800

  • Antonio Senzatela $5,600

  • Zach Plesac $5,500

  • Adrian Sampson $4,800

This is a really interesting slate for pitching. All of the premium tier starters are overpriced by a good bit. Strasburg and Montas’ prices make no sense to me. Today is a rare slate where I’ll skip the aces and find value elsewhere.

Pivetta, Yarbrough, and Matz are immediate throw aways. I’d consider Bundy and Samardzija but I love Trevor Richards today.

Marco Gonzales is a fine pick today against Texas but I’m using Brad Keller. He’s got a ton of value today. Stack targets include Wainwright, Davies, Richard, Sampson and Kelly.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Trevor Story, SS $5,600

  • Alex Bregman, 3B $4,800

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B $5,600

  • David Dahl, OF $4,200

  • Kyle Schwarber, OF $3,900

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B $4,100

  • Jack Mayfield, 2B/SS $2,000

  • Will Smith, C $2,100

  • Christin Stewart, OF $3,400

  • Bryce Harper, OF $4,300

My Lineup

P- Richards $8,200 P- Gonzales $6,000 C- Smith $2,100 1B- Goldschmidt $4,100 2B- Hernández $3,400 3B- Arenado $5,900 SS- DeJong $4,500 OF- Trout $5,800 OF- Ozuna $4,800 OF- Harper $4,300

Gambling Picks

YEST: (0-3) -1.53 U

YTD: (126-84-4) 60% +17.89 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/29/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/24/19