Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/24/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. There are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 83.65 points yesterday which wasn’t good enough to cash. Senzatela put up an outstanding -12.30 points to really tank the lineup. Strasburg wasn’t great either. Turner, Betts, and Harper failed to get to double digits. Rizzo did have 31 points though.

P- Strasburg $11,100 P- Senzatela $6,400 C- Jansen $2,900 1B- Rizzo $4,900 2B- Castro $2,700 3B- Anderson $3,200 SS- Turner $4,800 OF- Betts $5,100 OF- Harper $4,500 OF- McCutchen $4,200

Main Slate: 14 Games

Weather

I’m staying away from NYY/KC today as I think there’s a good chance it gets PPD. ATL/STL has very good hitting weather.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Blake Snell $11,400

  • Chris Sale $11,200

  • Robbie Ray $10,900

  • Shane Bieber $10,400

  • Jose Berrios $10,200

  • Noah Syndergaard $10,100

  • Walker Buehler $9.900

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Joey Lucchesi $8,900

  • Griffin Canning $8,600

  • Jerad Eickhoff $8,200

  • Chase Anderson $8,000

  • Daniel Mengden $7,900

  • Mike Foltynewicz $7,700

  • Trent Thornton $7,600

  • Pablo Lopez $7,500

  • Wade LeBlanc $7,400

  • Miles Mikolas $7,300

  • Drew Pomeranz $7,200

  • Reynaldo Lopez $7,100

  • Kyle McGowin $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • John Means $6,500

  • Drew Smyly $6,400

  • Gregory Soto $6,300

  • Jakob Junis $6,200

  • Chris Stratton $5,800

This is a really tough day for pitching. Lots of aces but not much value. Snell, Sale, Ray, Bieber, and Berrios are all priced correctly. They don’t have much value and I’ll be avoiding them as much as possible. Syndergaard has massive value and should be in all cash lineups. Buehler should be avoided along with the other premium tier guys. He’s actually overpriced but quite a bit in comparison to the others.

The middle tier brings hardly any value and a couple stack targets. I like Phillies hitters against Anderson, Cardinals against Folty, Red Sox against Miley, Padres against Thornton, and A’s against LeBlanc. Even though there are so many guys I’d like to stack against, I did find my second pitcher in this tier. I’m going with Pomeranz to pair with Thor.

Smyly, Soto, and Junis actually have quite a bit of value from the Bargain Bin. Stack against Means and Stratton.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Trevor Story, SS $5,600

  • Christian Yelich, OF $5,600

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B $5,600

  • Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF $5,900

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,800

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Curtis Granderson, OF $3,500

  • Starlin Castro, 2B $2,700

  • Austin Hedges, C $2,800

  • Wil Myers, 1/BOF $3,600

  • Manny Machado, 3B/SS $4,300

My Lineup

P- Syndergaard $10,100 P- Pomeranz $7,200 C- Hedges $2,800 1B- Goldschmidt $4,100 2B- Sanchez $2,400 3B- Arenado $5,600 SS- Story $5,600 OF- Trout $5,800 OF- Granderson $3,500 OF- Jones $2,800

Gambling Picks

YEST: (3-1) +1.05 U

YTD: (120-72-4) 62.5% +21.64 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/28/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/23/19