Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/21/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. There are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 177.35 points yesterday which was good enough to cash my contests. Corbin and Arrieta only combined for 25.35 points but some unlikely hitters carried the squad. Hanser Alberto (36 points), Tim Beckham (30), Asdrubal Cabrera (28), and Joey Gallo (21) all had monster nights. Choo, Mazara, and Gomes all had double digits as well. That’s a dream outcome when picking hitters.

P- Corbin $10,900 P- Arrieta $7,800 C- Gomes $2,700 1B- Morales $3.400 2B- Alberto $2,900 3B- Cabrera $3,800 SS- Beckham $3,500 OF- Gallo $5,700 OF- Choo $4,900 OF- Mazara $4,100

Main Slate: 14 Games

Weather

I’m avoiding KC/STL today. It sounds like they won’t be able to get this whole game in. PHI/CHC has winds blowing in and cold weather today so keep that in mind.

UPDATE: KC/STL has been PPD.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Justin Verlander $11,300

  • Caleb Smith $10,400

  • Zack Greinke $10,200

  • Domingo German $9,900

  • Clayton Kershaw $9,800

  • Zach Eflin $9,400

  • German Márquez $9,200

  • Zack Wheeler $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Eduardo Rodriguez $8,900

  • Julio Teheran $8,500

  • Matt Strahm $8,400

  • Chris Archer $8,000

  • Jose Quintana $7,900

  • Spencer Turnbull $7,800

  • Jalen Beeks $7,600

  • Gio Gonzalez $7,400

  • Marcus Stroman $7,300

  • Erick Fedde $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Shaun Anderson $6,900

  • Lance Lynn $6,800

  • Sonny Gray $6,700

  • Michael Wacha $6,600

  • Michael Pineda $6,500

  • Homer Bailey $6,300

  • Trevor Cahill $6,100

  • Dylan Covey $5,800

  • Tommy Milone $5,700

  • David Hess $5,400

A very top heavy pitching slate leaves us with a lot to sort through. First off, Verlander is the deserved #1 pitcher tonight. I don’t think there’s anyway you can avoid using him in a cash game. Smith, Greinke, and German can be tossed out for me though. They’re priced too highly for this slate. Conversely, Kershaw, Eflin, and Márquez are priced right on the money. I’d have no issue using either of them if it wasn’t for Zack Wheeler offering big value. I haven’t decided if I’ll use Verlander or Wheeler yet as my ace yet. It’ll depend on how prohibitive the cost is to the rest of my lineup.

Eduardo Rodriguez is also a good value tonight but I like him quite a bit less than Wheeler. I’m saying no to Teheran, Strahm, Beeks, Gonzalez, Stroman, and Fedde. They don’t bring much to the table in terms of value. My pick of the night is Jose Quintana. With the wind blowing hard in and cold temps in Chicago, he’s a great play.

Sonny Gray and Michael Wacha have a lot of value from the Bargain Bin if you have the stomach for it.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Daniel Vogelbach, 1B $4,900

  • Mitch Haniger, OF $5,100

  • Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF $5,700

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,600

  • Alex Bregman, 3B $5,400

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Zack Cozart, 3B/SS $2,200

  • Enrique Hernandez, 2B/OF $3,300

  • Starlin Castro, 2B $2,700

  • Jeff Mathis, C $2,200

  • Jackie Bradley Jr, OF $2,600

My Lineup

P- Verlander $11,300 P- Quintana $7,900 C- Mathis $2,200 1B- Vogelbach $4,900 2B- Hernández $3,300 3B- Anderson $2,900 SS- Crawford $2,900 OF- Trout $5,600 OF- Gallo $5,500 OF- Duggar $3,500

Gambling Picks

YEST: (4-0-1) +2.13 U

YTD: (109-65-4) 62.6% +20.36 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/22/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/20/19