Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/17/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 146.50 points yesterday which was good enough to cash my contests. Wheeler and Turnbull combined for just 20.50 points but we still managed to cash. Nicky Lopez had a nice day with 14 points but he didn’t come close to the highest scorer. Moustakas scored 26, Gallo scored 35, and Yelich lead the way with 42 points.

P- Wheeler $10,000 P- Turnbull $8,000 C- Maldonado $2,300 1B- Goodrum $3,300 2B- Lopez $3,300 3B- Moustakas $4,400 SS- Difo $2,600 OF- Yelich $5,800 OF- Gallo $5,700 OF- Harper $4,600

This lineup scored 119.90 points and cashed our second win in a row. Castillo and Stroman turned in solid performances and combined for 40.90 points. Peraza, Carpenter, Ozuna, Rosario, and Acuna all scored double digit points.

P- Castillo $10,600 P- Stroman $7,700 C- Jansen $2,300 1B- Goldschmidt $4,600 2B- Peraza $3,000 3B- Carpenter $4,000 SS- Iglesias $3,300 OF- Ozuna $5,000 OF- Rosario $4,700 OF- Acuña Jr $4,500

Main Slate: 15 Games

Weather

Shouldn’t be any issues tonight but as always, check back later.

UPDATE: weather is good to go

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Jacob deGrom $11,400

  • Max Scherzer $11,100

  • Gerrit Cole $10,700

  • Cole Hamels $9,700

  • Rich Hill $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Frankie Montas $8,800

  • Martin Perez $8,600

  • Jon Gray $8,500

  • Max Fried $8,300

  • Joey Lucchesi $8,200

  • Jordan Lyles $7,700

  • Miles Mikolas $8,000

  • Rick Porcello $7,900

  • Marco Gonzales $7,800

  • Anthony DeSclafani $7,700

  • Yonny Chirinos $7,600

  • Jeff Samardzija $7,500

  • Daniel Norris $7,400

  • Dylan Bundy $7,300

  • Trevor Richards $7,200

  • C.C. Sabathia $7,100

  • Cole Irvin $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Aaron Sanchez $6,900

  • Jefry Rodriguez $6,800

  • Merrill Kelly $6,700

  • Jhoulys Chacin $6,600

  • Ivan Nova $6,200

  • Brad Keller $6,000

  • Adrian Sampson $5,200

deGrom and Scherzer are the two best pitcher in the game of baseball and they get deserved top billing today. I’m going go crazy and use both tonight. They should combine for around 60 points so I’ll need to find some really good values on the hitting side. I’m staying away from the rest of the premium tier, specifically Cole Hamels.

If I find that using the two aces is too prohibitive for my lineup, I’ll be pairing deGrom with Joey Lucchesi. He’s got big time value tonight against the Pirates at home. Trevor Richards is the pitcher I would pari with Scherzer if you prefer him to deGrom. Richards has a ton of value as well. Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales are also decent values in the medium tier. I’m not playing anyone else from this tier though.

Aaron Sanchez gets a lot of consideration from me tonight. He should priced way higher. Merrill Kelly and Ivan Nova are fine options as well. Those are the only guys from the Bargain Bin that I’m considering.

UPDATE: going with deGrom and Lucchesi

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF $5,500

  • Joc Pederson, OF $5,000

  • Max Muncy, 1B/2B $5,000

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,600

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B $4,500

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B $4,000

  • Brian Dozier, 2B $2,800

  • Chris Owings, 2B/OF $2,300

  • Travis d’Arnaud, C $2,800

  • Steve Pearce, 1B/OF $2,400

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- deGrom $11,400 P- Lucchesi $8,200 C- d’Arnaud $2,800 1B- Carpenter $4,000 2B- Dozier $2,800 3B- Arenado $5,400 SS- Semien $3,800 OF- Gallo $5,000 OF- Gonzalez $3,300 OF- Schwarber $3,200

Gambling Picks

YEST: (4-2) +0.76 U

YTD: (93-60-3) 60.8% +13.53 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/20/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/16/19