Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/16/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 97.90 points yesterday which wasn’t good enough to cash. The losing streak moves on with another tough luck loss. My pitchers combined for 55.90 points but I haven’t been able to pick a hitter to save my life all week. Acuña was the only hitter in double digits

P- Corbin $10,000 P- Rodriguez $8,500 C- Maldonado $2,200 1B- Freeman $4,800 2B- Dozier $2,900 3B- Carpenter $3,800 SS- Machado $4,100 OF- Springer $5,800 OF- Acuña Jr $4,600 OF- Hernandez $3,600

Early Slate: 4 Games

Weather

Strong winds blowing out in TEX/KC with temps in the 90s so take the over and roster those hitters.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Zack Wheeler $10,000

  • Zach Eflin $9,100

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Chris Bassitt $8,600

  • Spencer Turnbull $8,000

  • Lance Lynn $7,600

  • Anibal Sanchez $7,200

  • Zach Davies $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Homer Bailey $6,000

Wheeler is the only pitcher projected to even have a good game today so he’s a must own. Eflin is the opposite. Don’t play him.

I suppose Bassitt is the pitcher I’ll pair with Wheeler. Not happy about it though. Turnbull and Sanchez are pretty blah. Don’t play Lynn or Davies. They’re going to get crushed and I have the over in both their games.

Homer Bailey will live up to his name today.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Christian Yelich, OF $5,800

  • Joey Gallo, OF $5,700

  • Pete Alonso, 1B $5,300

  • Jeff McNeil, 2B/3B $4,200

  • Matt Chapman, 3B $4,200

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Brian Dozier, 2B $2,800

  • Jesus Aguilar, 1B $3,300

  • Chris Owings, 2B/OF $2,400

  • Jeff Mathis, C $2,300

  • Andrew McCutchen, OF $4,000

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Wheeler $10,000 P- Turnbull $8,000 C- Maldonado $2,300 1B- Goodrum $3,300 2B- Lopez $3,300 3B- Moustakas $4,400 SS- Difo $2,600 OF- Yelich $5,800 OF- Gallo $5,700 OF- Harper $4,600

Night Slate: 5 Games

Weather

Local meteorologists in Chicago are calling for severe storms and hail but Kevin has the game as likely to play. We’ll see which one is right but it’ll be important to check back later for TOR/CHW.

Pitchers

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Luis Castillo $10,600

  • Jose Quintana $9,200

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Trevor Williams $8,300

  • Julio Teheran $8,000

  • Marcus Stroman $7,700

  • Adam Wainwright $7,500

  • Michael Pineda $7,300

  • Erik Swanson $7,100

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Eric Lauer $6,800

  • Dylan Covey $6,200

Luis Castillo has a fair price tag today as the highest salaried pitcher while Quintana is a complete stay away for me.

Williams is a fine pick tonight but I’m not using him. Avoid Teheran and Wainwright as much as possible. Stack Braves against Wainwright. I’m using Marcus Stroman tonight against the White Sox.

Eric Lauer has a ton of value tonight against the struggling Pirates. I’m pairing him with Stroman. Dylan Covey is a big stack target tonight.

Hitters

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Vlad Guerrero Jr, 3B $4,100

  • Freddie Freeman, 1B $4,500

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $4,200

  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B $4,000

  • Javier Baéz, SS $5,100

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B $4,000

  • Danny Jansen, C $2,300

  • Kyle Schwarber, OF $3,100

  • Joey Votto, 1B $3,500

  • Max Kepler, OF $3,900

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Castillo $10,600 P- Stroman $7,700 C- Jansen $2,300 1B- Goldschmidt $4,600 2B- Peraza $3,000 3B- Carpenter $4,000 SS- Iglesias $3,300 OF- Ozuna $5,000 OF- Rosario $4,700 OF- Acuña Jr $4,500

Gambling Picks

YEST: (3-1) +1.00 U

YTD: (89-58-3) +12.77 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/17/19

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