Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders. He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.
The below lineup scored a total of 116.35 points yesterday which wasn’t good enough to cash my contests. Tough luck loss that stings a little while riding a losing streak. It’s hard to lose when your pitchers combine for 64.35 points but both pitchers were over 65% owned so it put pressure on the hitters. My two big ticket items, Trout and Yelich, combined for 4 points. Matt Carpenter had 11 but he was 60% owned. My lone good hitting pick was Machado, who scored 24 points and was 5% owned.
P- Sale $10,800 P- Smith $8,500 C- Jansen $2,300 1B- Carpenter $3,700 2B- Castro $2,400 3B- Anderson $2,700 SS- Machado $3,700 OF- Yelich $5,900 OF- Trout $5,600 OF- Goodrum $3,400
Main Slate: 8 Games
My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.
Justin Verlander $11,000
Patrick Corbin $10,000
Mike Minor $9,400
Kenta Maeda $9,200
German Márquez $9,000
MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:
Matt Strahm $8,900
Mike Soroka $8,800
Eduardo Rodriguez $8,200
Jake Arrieta $8,000
Jalen Beeks $7,600
Wilmer Font $7,500
Gio Gonzalez $7,300
BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:
Michael Wacha $6,700
Gregory Soto $5,500
Jose Ureña $5,300
Jorge López $5,000
Justin Verlander makes a return to Detroit tonight and headlines a solid pitching slate. He’s a good value but Patrick Corbin is the pick for me of the two. Mike Minor, similar to Verlander, is a fine value. I just prefer other targets. I’m not using Maeda or Márquez.
Strahm, Soroka, Beeks, Font, and Gio are all out for me. They don’t have much value. Eduardo Rodriguez is the pick here in the middle tier of pitchers. He’s got the Rockies away from coming Coors where they’re significantly less dangerous. Arrieta is fairly priced but I don’t want him against the Brewers.
The Bargain Bin has some value with Ureña and López. I’m really considering using Ureña in DFS and I’ve already made a bet on Miami +170 today.
Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.
George Springer, OF $5,800
Joey Gallo, OF $5,400
Alex Bregman, 3B $5,300
Christian Yelich, OF $5,700
Carlos Correa, SS $4,800
5 VALUE PLAYS:
Starlin Castro, 2B $2,500
Brian Dozier, 2B $2,900
Matt Carpenter, 1B/3B $3,800
Jackie Bradley Jr, OF $2,600
Enrique Hernandez, 2B/OF $3,600
The only catcher batting higher than 6th in this slate is JT Realmuto ($4,200). He’s quite a bit too expensive for me though so I’m going with Austin Hedges ($2,700). Since I don’t have a Padres lineup yet I’ll say my back up back stop is Anthony Bemboom ($2,000). If that’s the case I’ll have some more money to update this lineup.
I’m going with Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300) at first base tonight. He’s hitting second as usual in Atlanta. I also considered Eric Hosmer ($3,500), Niko Goodrum ($3,000), and Freddie Freeman ($4,800).
Brian Dozier ($2,900) is hitting sixth and has big value against Wilmer Font. Starlin Castro ($2,500) also has some nice value hitting cleanup tonight.
I love Matt Carpenter ($3,800) leading off tonight in Atlanta. Back up options include Brian Anderson ($2,800), Austin Riley ($3,400), and Josh Donaldson ($4,200).
Assuming he’s in the lineup tonight, Manny Machado ($4,100) has a ton of value against the Dodgers. I also like Dansby Swanson ($4,200) hitting second and Wilmer Difo ($2,700) facing Wilmer Font,
George Springer ($5,800) and Ronald Acuña Jr ($4,600) are two of the highest projected OF tonight and they’re both in my lineup. I’m also using Enrique Hernandez ($3,600) against a lefty. He’s a monster against southpaws. I also like JD Martinez ($4,800) hitting third and Andrew McCutchen ($4,000) leading off against a lefty. Cheaper options include Curtis Granderson ($3,100) leading off, Nomar Mazara ($4,000) hitting third, and JaCoby Jones ($2,400) hitting ninth.
P- Corbin $10,000 P- Rodriguez $8,500 C- Maldonado $2,200 1B- Freeman $4,800 2B- Dozier $2,900 3B- Carpenter $3,800 SS- Machado $4,100 OF- Springer $5,800 OF- Acuña Jr $4,600 OF- Hernandez $3,600
Yest: (3-3) +0.00 U
YTD: (86-57-3) +11.77 U
I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.