Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/14/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 79.00 points yesterday which wasn’t good enough to cash my contests. Nola producing only 1.95 points is the main culprit for this lineup not cashing. At least Khris Davis hit two home runs? I’m currently riding a 4 slate losing streak heading into today.

P- Nola $9,200 P- Bieber $9,000 C- Cervelli $2,900 1B- Cabrera $3,100 2B- Pinder $3,700 3B- Ramirez $4,300 SS- Semien $3,900 OF- Trout $5,500 OF- Haniger $4,500 OF- Davis $4,000

Main Slate: 12 Games

Weather

Possible delays in LAA/MIN and TEX/KC make pitching a little risky. TOR/SF could also see a delay.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Chris Sale $10,800

  • Charlie Morton $10,500

  • Clayton Kershaw $10,200

  • Chris Paddack $10,000

  • Noah Syndergaard $9,800

  • Caleb Smith $9,500

  • Jerad Eickhoff $9,200

  • Jack Flaherty $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Luke Weaver $8,800

  • Brandon Woodruff $8,600

  • Kyle Gibson $8,300

  • Mike Foltynewicz $8,100

  • Wade Miley $7,900

  • Danny Duffy $7,700

  • Trent Thornton $7,300

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Mike Leake $6,800

  • Kyle Freeland $6,600

  • Joe Musgrove $6,500

  • Jeremy Hellickson $6,400

  • Shelby Miller $5,900

  • Brett Anderson $5,600

  • Ryan Carpenter $5,500

It seems like every time Chris Sale pitches these days he’s being underrated. Sure he’s the highest priced pitcher on the slate today but he’s well worth it. He’s a must for cash games. I’m avoiding Morton, Paddack, Eickhoff, and Flaherty from this tier. Eickhoff in particular is a poor value. Kershaw, Syndergaard, and Smith are a pure toss up for me so I’m using Smith since he costs the least.

The medium tier doesn’t have many pitchers that I’d use but also not many that I’m purposely fading. Duffy has a lot of value tonight against Texas and Wade Miley is a very poor value. I’m probably going to use a couple Tigers hitters. The rest of these pitchers are very fungible.

Brett Anderson and Joe Musgrove stick out to me as guys who could be good GPP plays. The rest of the Bin is trash. I’d stack Astros and Royals in particular.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,600

  • Christian Yelich, OF $5,900

  • Alex Bregman, 3B $5,500

  • Mookie Betts, OF $5,500

  • Carlos Correa, SS $4,900

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Starlin Castro, 2B $2,400

  • Matt Carpenter, 1/B3B $3,700

  • Travis Shaw, 3B $2,400

  • Max Kepler, OF $3,800

  • Danny Jansen, C $2,300

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Sale $10,800 P- Smith $8,500 C- Jansen $2,300 1B- Carpenter $3,700 2B- Castro $2,400 3B- Anderson $2,700 SS- Machado $3,700 OF- Yelich $5,900 OF- Trout $5,600 OF- Goodrum $3,400

Gambling Picks

Yest: (1-1) -0.08 U

YTD: (83-54-3) +11.77 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/15/19

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