Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/10/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Yesterday’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 124.55 points yesterday which was good enough to cash my contests. Carrasco and Roark outscored their projections. Pérez, Walker, and Bryant all scored double digit points.

P- Carrasco $10,200 P- Roark $7,600 C- Pérez $3,100 1B- Walker $3,300 2B- Castro $2,900 3B- Anderson $2,900 SS- Báez $5,400 OF- Trout $5,600 OF- Bryant $5,500 OF- Puig $3,400

The 4 slate wining streak came to an end last night as this lineup only scored 76.70 points. Corbin carried the team with 30.95 points but Wacha was predictably bad again, scoring just 6.75. The hitters were all busts except for George Springer.

P- Corbin $9,200 P- Wacha $7,600 C- Mathis $2,500 1B- White $3,000 2B- Altuve $4,400 3B- Bregman $4,700 SS- Swanson $4,100 OF- Gallo $5,400 OF- Springer $5,000 OF- Acuña Jr $4,200

Main Slate: 14 Games

Weather

LAA/BAL will probably have a late start but should play fine. MIA/NYM looks like it may be at risk of a PPD. We’ll have to look back later this afternoon to see if it’ll cause any trouble with our Zack Wheeler play.

UPDATE: MIA/NYM isn’t without risk of an in game delay but I’m rolling the dice with Wheeler.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Justin Verlander $11,000

  • Luis Castillo $10,600

  • Tyler Glasnow $10,400

  • Zack Greinke $9,800

  • Zack Wheeler $9,700

  • Domingo Germán $9,500

  • Kenta Maeda $9,200

  • German Márquez $9,100

  • Jake Arrieta $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Jake Odorizzi $8,800

  • Eduardo Rodriguez $8,800

  • Julio Teheran $8,500

  • Frankie Montas $8,400

  • Pablo López $8,100

  • Erik Swanson $7,700

  • Trevor Williams $7,500

  • Clay Buchholz $7,300

  • Adam Wainwright $7,200

  • Trevor Cahill $7,100

  • Anibal Sánchez $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Lance Lynn $6,900

  • Eric Lauer $6,600

  • Cody Anderson $6,500

  • Dylan Covey $6,200

  • Dan Straily $6,100

  • Tyson Ross $6,000

  • Homer Bailey $5,800

Justin Verlander is at the top of the slate tonight and it’s well deserved. He’ll face a strikeout prone Rangers squad in pitcher friendly Minute Maid Park. Castillo, Glasnow, Greinke, Germán, Márquez, and Arrieta are all properly priced and don’t have a ton of profit potential. I prefer Arrieta of the bunch. Zack Wheeler is the pitcher with the best chance to outscore his price. I love his upside and will pair him with Verlander. Maeda also has a bit of a chance to profit.

I like both Odorizzi and Rodriguez in the middle tier but they’re really the only ones. Projections don’t love Trevor Williams but he’s exactly the kind of pitcher the Cardinals struggle against. Avoid both Swanson and Buchholz at all costs.

The only pitcher I’d consider from the Bargain Bin is Dereck Rodriguez. Even then, I’d prefer to pull from the more expensive pool of pitchers.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,700

  • Shohei Ohtani, OF $4,900

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B $5,700

  • Trevor Story, SS $5,600

  • Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF $5,900

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,600

  • Jackie Bradley Jr, OF $2,900

  • Chris Davis, 1B $3,100

  • Jason Kipnis, 2B $3,000

  • Jung-Ho Kang, 3B $3,000

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Verlander $11,00 P- Wheeler $9,700 C- Ciuffo $2,600 1B- Davis $3,100 2B- Kipnis $3,000 3B- Andújar $3,300 SS- Machado $4,800 OF- Trout $5,700 OF- Grichuk $3,800 OF- Bradley Jr $2,900

Gambling Picks

YEST: (2-1) +0.06 U

YTD: (67-52-3) +4.67 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

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Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/13/19

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