Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/1/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Last Night’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 141.75 points yesterday which was good enough to cash in all of my contests. Gerrit Cole was great last night, scoring over 39 points. Bauer left a bit to be desired but you can’t complain about 26.35 points. Jesus Aguilar stayed hot, homering for the 3rd time in two games. Justin Turner and Starling Marte also went deep. This was one of my most profitable DFS nights of the year so far based on the contests I entered.

P- Bauer $10,900 P- Cole $10,200 C- Cervelli $3,300 1B- Aguilar $2,900 2B- Odor $4,000 3B- Turner $3,600 SS- Crawford $2,400 OF- Polanco $4,500 OF- Marte $4,400 OF- Puig $3,800

Early Slate: 5 Games

Weather

Good hitting weather in PIT/TEX

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Masahiro Tanaka $9,700

  • Carlos Rodon $9,400

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Jameson Taillon $8,500

  • Jakob Junis $7,800

  • Merrill Kelly $7,400

  • Mike Fiers $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Hector Velasquez $6,200

  • Jalen Beeks $5,900

  • Shelby Miller $5,800

  • David Hess $4,500

Gross. I’m using Rodon for sure today but the second option is tough to find. I’m out on Tanaka, he’s way too expensive.

Jakob Junis is a fine option but I’m going to use Merrill Kelly against the Yanks. Stay away from Taillon and Fiers at all costs.

Don’t use the Bargain Bin guys. Stack against Shelby Miller.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Josh Bell, 1B $4,800

  • Starling Marte, OF $4,400

  • Gregory Polanco, OF $4,300

  • Jung-Ho Kang, 3B $3,600

  • Adam Frazier, 2B $4,000

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Josh Bell, 1B $4,800

  • Starling Marte, OF $4,400

  • Gregory Polanco, OF $4,300

  • Jung-Ho Kang, 3B $3,600

  • Rougned Odor, 2B $4,000

Lineup Updates

Like I said, stack those Pirates.

My Lineup

P- Rodón $9,400 P- Kelly $7,400 C- Diaz $3,600 1B- Bell $4,800 2B- Odor $3,900 3B- Alberto $3,500 SS- Adames $3,200 OF- Betts $5,400 OF- Marte $4,400 OF- Polanco $4,300

Gambling Picks

YEST: (1-2) -0.63 U

YTD: (46-36-2) +4.60 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

TB/KC u8.5 -105, PIT/TEX o10.5 -110

Night Slate: 9 Games

Weather

Everything should be good

Pitchers

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Max Scherzer $10,900

  • Jacob deGrom $10,200

  • Corey Kluber $9,400

  • Hyun-Jin Ryu $9,200

  • Aaron Nola $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONs

  • Marcus Stroman $8,800

  • Caleb Smith $8,600

  • Madison Bumgarner $8,400

  • Collin McHugh $8,300

  • Anthony DeSclafani $7,900

  • Max Fried $7,800

  • Daniel Norris $7,500

  • Miles Mikolas $7,300

  • Felix Peña $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Chase Anderson $6,900

  • Antonio Sentzatela $6,700

  • Martin Perez $5,900

  • Cal Quantrill $5,500

Scherzer and deGrom are fat and away the best options tonight. Use them together if you can find some bargain hitters. Kluber and Nola are also excellent options. Of the pair I prefer Nola quite a bit though. Ryu is fairly priced.

I’m highly out on Stroman tonight but highly in on Caleb Smith. Bumgarner is also a good option tonight. McHugh, DeSclafani, Fried, Mikolas, and Peña are “meh” to me so I’m staying away. Norris is a no-go.

Chase Anderson is the only option from the Bargain Bin.

Hitters

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $4,800

  • Alex Bregman, 3B $4,600

  • Jose Altuve, 2B $4,500

  • Freddie Freeman, 1B $5,100

  • George Springer, OF $5,200

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Ian Kinsler, 2B $3,000

  • Manny Machado, 3B/SS $4,100

  • Travis Shaw, 3B $3,600

  • Andrew McCutchen, OF $4,500

  • Randal Grichuk, OF $3,900

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Scherzer $10,900 P- deGrom $10,200 C- Jansen $3,000 1B- Aguilar $3,600 2B- Kinsler $3,000 3B- Shaw $3,600 SS- Machado $2,400 OF- Myers $4,300 OF- Grichuk $3,900 OF- McKinney $3,300

Gambling Picks

YEST: (1-2) -0.63 U

YTD: (46-36-2) +4.60 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

CHC/SEA o9 -105, WAS -148, MIA +115, SD/ATL o9 -120

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/3/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/30/19