Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/8/19

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Each weekday morning I’ll be previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

 Main Slate: 8 Games

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

Premium options:

  • Justin Verlander $10,400

  • Hyun-Jin Ryu $9,600

  • Madison Bumgarner $9,300

Medium CosT options:

  • Masahiro Tanaka $8,700

  • Vince Velasquez $8,400

  • Jhoulys Chacín $8,100

  • Miles Mikolas $7,900

  • Eric Lauer $7,500

  • Marco Estrada $7,300

  • Trevor Cahill $7,100

Bargain Bin options:

  • Felix Hernández $6,900

  • Anibal Sánchez $6,500

  • Kyle Freeland $6,200

  • Andrew Cashner $6,000

  • Julio Teheran $5,800

  • Homer Bailey $5,000

This is a really tough slate for pitching. Verlander is the unquestioned high scorer for the day but after that there’s very little value. You’ll have to pay equal value for MadBum, Mikolas, Freeland, Estrada, and Cahill. Ryu, Chacín, and Tanaka are very overpriced. If you have the guts to play Homer Bailey, he does have some value. The same goes for Velasquez. In the end, I’m probably going with a Verlander/Bailey combo because I do have the guts and I’m a masochist.

 Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 Highest Scorers:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,700

  • Matt Chapman, 3B $5,800

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $5,500

  • Ozzie Albies, 2B $5,200

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B $5,000

5 VAlue plays:

  • Alex Gordon, OF $3,700

  • Charlie Blackmon, OF $5,200

  • Jorge Soler, OF $3,900

  • Justin Bour, 1B $4,100

  • Ozzie Albies, 2B $5,200

Weather

There’s rain in the forecast in Baltimore, Philadelphia, and San Francisco. BAL is likely to have a late start. Philadelphia might be looking at an in game delay so be careful with pitchers in that one. SF should be fine as it’ll just be light rain.

Lineup Updates

With Tyler Flowers hitting the bench again today, my pick at catcher has to be reconsidered. I don’t want his replacement, Alex Jackson, so I went with Chris Iannetta ($4,000) as he’s batting 5th. The other catchers in this slate are batting lower in the lineup.

Trey Mancini ($4,200), Justin Bour ($4,100) and Luke Voit ($4,000) are batting 3rd for their respective teams. I’m starting Mancini tonight. I’m also a fan of Ryan O’Hearn batting 5th tonight against Felix Hernandez.

When Ozzie Albies ($5,200) faces a lefty, his value sky rockets. When he’s facing a lefty and leading off in Coors Field… well I’ll be paying up for him tonight. Hanser Alberto ($3,500) is batting 5th for the Orioles.

I’m paying up for Matt Chapman ($4,800) tonight at 3rd but if you can find a way to get Josh Donaldson ($5,000) in your lineup he should have a big night. There aren’t a ton of good, cheap options tonight at 3B but Hunter Dozier ($3,600) is one I’d consider.

Dansby Swanson ($4,300), Corey Seager ($4,100), and Andrelton Simmons ($3,800) all have value tonight at SS.

Charlie Blackmon ($5,200) is going to have the highest score of the night tonight and I’m finding value in his price. I’m high on Adam Eaton ($4,000) today against Vince Velasquez. Jose Martinez ($4,900) in the lineup batting 3rd for STL against a lefty. As usual, Kole Calhoun ($3,900) and Brett Gardner ($3,600) are leading off good lineups and being undervalued. I’m a big fan of Alex Gordon ($3,700) and Jorge Soler ($3,900) tonight as well.

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/9/19

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