Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/30/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Last Night’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 102.95 points yesterday which was good enough to cash my contests. Verlander was alright, scoring 23.10 points but John Means flopped (1.85). Jesus Aguilar carries the squad with 35 points. Mookie and Jackie Bradley Jr scored double digits as well. Overall is was a pretty lucky cash.

P- Verlander $10,800 P- Means $7,000 C- Molina $3,600 1B- Aguilar $3,300 2B- Altuve $4,700 3B- Donaldson $4,700 SS- Crawford $2,800 OF- Betts $5,200 OF- Acuña Jr $4,900 OF- Bradley Jr $3,100

Main Slate: 15 Games

Weather

SD/ATL has some good temps for hitting which has me on the over 8.5 runs. HOU/MIN is cold, windy, and rainy. They should get the game in but it’ll be terrible hitting weather. PIT/TEX is the opposite. Hot and humid means great hitting weather but there are severe storms in the area so you need to keep an eye on it. I’m just going to avoid players in BAL/CHW tonight. There’s a chance of a PPD and if they do play it’ll be brutal hitting weather. TB/KC looks like a complete washout.

UPDATE: BAL/CHW and TB/KC has both been PPD.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Trevor Bauer $10,900

  • Blake Snell $10,500

  • Gerrit Cole $10,200

  • Luis Castillo $10,100

  • Walker Buehler $9,900

  • German Marquez $9,700

  • Zack Greinke $9,700

  • Cole Hamels $9,200

  • Chris Paddack $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Vincent Velasquez $8,700

  • Rick Porcello $8,200

  • Julio Teheran $8,000

  • Drew Pomeranz $7,900

  • Griffin Canning $7,800

  • Michael Pineda $7,700

  • Jakob Junis $7,500

  • Jordan Lyles $7,400

  • Clay Buchholz $7,300

  • Adam Wainwright $7,200

  • CC Sabathia $7,100

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Felix Hernandez $6,800

  • Anibal Sanchez $6,500

  • Jason Vargas $6,300

  • Jhoulys Chacin $6,200

  • Sandy Alcantara $6,100

  • Tyson Ross $6,000

  • Ivan Nova $5,900

  • Aaron Brooks $5,700

  • Andrew Cashner $5,500

  • Adrian Sampson $5,000

Bauer is the clear #1 option tonight and I suspect he’ll be rostered everywhere. Snell is going to get his start banged. I really like Cole tonight in the Minnesota cold. I also like Greinke, Hamels, and Castillo in that order. I’m avoiding Buehler, Marquez, and Paddack from this tier.

Vince Velasquez actually has a ton of value tonight against the Tigers. The question is do you really trust him? The rest of the pitchers in this tier either border on don’t use or just flat out stack against. I would only consider Pineda. Lyles, Buchholz, Wainwright, and Sabathia just aren’t good plays.

Ivan Nova is the crown jewel of the bargain bin tonight. It’s a really bad lineup and really good pitching weather. I actually don’t mind Alcantara either. Brooks and Sampson are big time stack candidates.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B $5,300

  • J.D. Martinez, OF $4,900

  • Mookie Betts, OF $5,000

  • Joey Gallo, OF $4,900

  • Paul DeJong, SS $4,800

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Jackie Bradley Jr, OF $3,100

  • Rougned Odor, 2B $4,000

  • Jung-Ho Kang, 3B $3,800

  • Gregory Polanco, OF $4,500

  • Justin Bour, 1B $3,900

Lineup Updates

I’m all over Francisco Cervelli ($3,300) hitting 7th tonight in Texas. Francisco Mejia ($3,200), ironically enough, is also hitting seventh and is my back up back stop if PIT/TEX gets PPD. Francisco, that’s fun to say.

Hit two dingers and you’re right back in the lineup the next day. That’s what Jesus Aguilar ($2,900) did and he’s even cheaper tonight. He’s got big time value so I’m banking on him having turned it around. I also like Josh Bell ($4,800) and Eric Hosmer ($4,100) both hitting cleanup.

Rougned Odor ($4,000) is severely underpriced tonight in the two hole against Jordan Lyles. If this game gets banged I also like Mike Moustakas ($4,300) hitting third, Jose Peraza ($3,300) leading off, and Tyler France ($3,700) hitting fifth.

Much to my dismay, Jung-Ho Kang ($3,700) is out of the lineup tonight. I’m going to use Justin Turner ($3,600) against a lefty tonight instead. A quick look shows some value on Tiger’s leadoff man Jeimer Candelario ($3,600) as well.

I’m going ultra cheap tonight with my most used shortstop, Brandon Crawford ($2,400). He hits sixth for the Giants and he’s far to cheap. If I wanted to pay up for a SS I’d use Paul DeJong ($4,800).

I’m stacking the Pirates in my outfield, using Gregory Polanco ($4,500) and Starling Marte ($4,400) hitting two-three in the order. Rounding out my trio is Yasiel Puig ($3,800) hitting cleanup against a lefty. I also considered JD Martinez ($4,800), Jackie Bradley Jr ($3,100), Kris Bryant ($4,400), and Randal Grichuk ($3,800).

My Lineup

P- Bauer $10,900 P- Cole $10,200 C- Cervelli $3,300 1B- Aguilar $2,900 2B- Odor $4,000 3B- Turner $3,600 SS- Crawford $2,400 OF- Polanco $4,500 OF- Marte $4,400 OF- Puig $3,800

Gambling Picks

YEST: (1-3) -1.38 U

YTD: (45-34-2) +5.23 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

HOU/MIN u8, SD/ATL o8.5 -115, ARI -133

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 5/1/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/29/19