Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/29/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Last Night’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 153.05 points yesterday which was good enough to cash my contests. Chris Sale was alright but Reynaldo Lopez carried the load with a ridiculous 42.50 points for just $6,200. The only homer of the day came from Robertson but he, Castillo, Tatis, Trout, and Davis all scored double digits.

P- Sale $10,000 P- Lopez $6,200 C- Castillo $3,400 1B- Myers $4,300 2B- Robertson $3,100 3B- Machado $3,900 SS- Tatis Jr $4,400 OF- Trout $5,600 OF- Betts $4,800 OF- Davis $4,200

Main Slate: 9 Games

Weather

Shouldn’t be much impact to games today.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Justin Verlander $10,800

  • Patrick Corbin $10,200

  • Kenta Maeda $9,700

  • Zack Wheeler $9,300

  • Eduardo Rodriguez $9,100

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Mike Soroka $8,600

  • Frankie Montas $8,300

  • Michael Wacha $8,100

  • Jeff Samardzija $8,000

  • Yonny Chirinos $7,900

  • Brad Keller $7,800

  • Kyle Freeland $7,700

  • Nick Margevicius $7,600

  • Manny Banuelos $7,500

  • Tanner Roark $7,300

  • Jake Odorizzi $7,100

  • John Means $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Zach Davies $6,800

A top heavy pitching slate is headlined by Verlander and Corbin. I’m good with using either but I’m going with Verlander. Maeda doesn’t have much value tonight but Zack Wheeler sure does. I’m considering pairing him with Verlander. E-Rod has been on a roll lately as well.

Soroka is fairly priced so I’m not considering him. Avoid Montas, Wacha, Samardzija, Margevicius, and Odorizzi as much as possible. I would actually stack Red Sox hitters against Montas. John Means has the most value today and I’m actually going to use him with Verlander. He’s been really good lately and it’s cold in Chicago tonight.

Don’t use Zack Davies.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $4,900

  • J.D. Martinez, OF $4,800

  • Mookie Betts, OF $5,200

  • Alex Bregman, 3B $4,700

  • Jose Altuve, 2B $4,700

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Jackie Bradley Jr, OF $3,100

  • Jesus Aguilar, 1B $3,300

  • Kurt Suzuki, C $3,700

  • Justin Turner, OF $3,600

  • Stevie Wilkerson, 2B/OF $2,400

Lineup Updates

I wanted to use Kurt Suzuki ($3,700) today but he’s not in the lineup. I’m going with Yadier Molina ($3,600) batting 6th against a lefty. Grandal ($4,500) is batting second against Kyle Freeland. James McCann ($4,000) and Mitch Garver ($4,200) are both hitting cleanup. Essentially everyone else is hitting lower in the lineup.

Jesus Aguilar ($3,300) is finally in the lineup and hitting cleanup against a lefty. He’s my pick at 1B tonight. I also like the rookie Nate Lowe ($3,100) hitting 5th. Joey Votto ($3,900) continues to be priced under $4,000 while hitting in the top two spots in the order. I also like Ji-Man Choi ($4,000) hitting third tonight.

I’m splurging on Jose Altuve ($4,700) tonight at 2B because he’s far and away the best option. Ian Kinsler ($3,100) is hitting sixth and has good value. I also don’t mind Jose Peraza ($3,300) leading off.

Justin Turner ($3,600) is a really good 3B option tonight against Samardzija but I’m going with a Josh Donaldson ($4,600) hitting second against a lefty. I’m also considering Machado ($4,000) hitting third and Jeff McNeil leading off ($4,200) tonight.

I’m going cheap tonight with my SS and using Brandon Crawford ($2,800). He’s got really good value and should be hitting sixth. I also like Jonathan Villar ($4,500) leading off and Paul DeJong ($4,700) hitting third tonight.

Even though he’s hitting seventh, I’m using Jackie Bradley Jr ($3,100) in my outfield tonight. He’s crazy cheap and the Red Sox should knock Frankie Montas around. I’m also using Mookie Betts ($5,200) hitting second in that order. Rounding out the outfield is Ronald Acuña Jr ($4,900). Some cheaper options include Joey Rickard ($3,600) hitting second, Franmil Reyes ($3,800) hitting second, and Jose Martinez ($3,700) hitting fifth.

My Lineup

P- Verlander $10,800 P- Means $7,000 C- Molina $3,600 1B- Aguilar $3,300 2B- Altuve $4,700 3B- Donaldson $4,700 SS- Crawford $2,800 OF- Betts $5,200 OF- Acuña Jr $4,900 OF- Bradley Jr $3,100

Gambling Picks

YEST: (4-1)+1.44 U

YTD: (44-31-2) +6.61 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

WAS -128 (1u), BOS -135 (1u), COL/MIL o8.5 -120, BAL +125

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/30/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/26/19