Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/26/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Last Night’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 111.75 points yesterday which wasn’t good enough to cash the 50/50 I entered. A cobbled together lineup in McDonalds parking lot actually put up a good showing but it was a tough luck loss today. Cole was excellent but Nola could have been better. LeMahieu, Torres, Betts, and Benintendi carried the load on offense.

P- Cole $10,200 P- Nola $9,100 C- Kiner-Falefa $3,000 1B- Forsythe $3,000 2B- LeMahieu $3,300 3B- Gurriel $3,400 SS- Torres $4,000 OF- Martinez $4,800 OF- Betts $4,700 OF- Benintendi $4,500

Main Slate: 15 Games

Weather

MIL/NYM is the game with the most risk. I’d avoid players in that game if I can because a PPD seems likely. TB/BOS isn’t great either. It looks like there is some PPD risk in that one too. MIA/PHI isn’t as risky but it’s not great baseball weather. These games will all require some extra attention before lock. SD/WAS should play just fine.

UPDATE: Need to add MIA/PHI to the no play list tonight. There’s a tornado watch in effect and it’s doubtful they play this one. Bummer because Castro and Grandy were big values today.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Max Scherzer $10,400

  • Jacob deGrom $10,000

  • James Paxton $9.600

  • Robbie Ray $8,900

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Corey Kluber $8,900

  • Chris Archer $8,800

  • Madison Bumgarner $8,700

  • Matt Strahm $8,600

  • Charlie Morton $8,500

  • David Price $8,400

  • Collin McHugh $8,300

  • Hyun-Jin Ryu $8,200

  • Carlos Rodon $8,100

  • Max Fried $8,000

  • Jerad Eickhoff $7,900

  • Tyler Skaggs $7,700

  • Mike Fiers $7,700

  • Marcus Stroman $7,600

  • Kyle Hendricks $7,500

  • Miles Mikolas $7,400

  • Anthony DeSclafani $7,100

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Daniel Norris $6,900

  • Martin Perez $6,800

  • Chase Anderson $6,700

  • Danny Duffy $6,500

  • Jose Urena $5,900

  • Antonio Senzetela $5,700

  • Alex Cobb $5,200

  • Shelby Miller $5,000

  • Justus Sheffield $4,000

Scherzer and deGrom are in position to dominate their starts (weather permitting). James Paxton is also in a GREAT scenario tonight in SF. Ray is blah tonight. No value but he’s fine.

Continue to avoid Kluber like the plague. I’m also running away from Strahm, Morton, McHugh, Eickhoff, Fiers, and DeSclafani. Don’t use ‘em. Bumgarner is a really nice value tonight against the Yankees Spring Training lineup. I also like Ryu, Rodon, and Fried out of this tier tonight.

Martin Perez is the only pitcher I’m considering out of the bargain bin. The rest are very yucky.

At the end of the day, I’m going with Scherzer/Paxton. Those’ll be popular picks tonight but I’m very confident they’ll cary my lineup tonight.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,600

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 3B $4,300

  • Anthony Rendon, 3B $5,000

  • Javier Baez, SS $5,500

  • Bryce Harper, OF $5,000

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Randal Grichuk, OF $4,300

  • Dylan Cozens, OF $3,200

  • Kris Bryant, 3B/OF $4,000

  • Bryce Harper, OF $5,000

  • Stevie Wilkerson, OF $2,200

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Scherzer $10,400 P- Paxton $9,600 C- Mathis $2,400 1B- Zimmerman $3,800 2B- Dozier $3,700 3B- Bryant $4,000 SS- Lindor $4,500 OF- Robles $4,300 OF- Grichuk $4,100 OF- Almora Jr $3,100

Gambling Picks

YEST: (2-3) -0.58 U

YTD: (34-26-1) +4.61 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

TOR -126, CWS -129, TEX/SEA o8.5, SD/WAS u7.5, MIL/NYM u7.5

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/29/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/24/19