Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/23/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Last Night’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 128.60 points yesterday which was good enough to cash in all the contests I entered. Finally, after a couple days of pitiful results I made a good lineup. Musgrove and Chirinos were very popular picks but Chirinos didn’t perform all that well. Dozier, Shaw, Correa, and Piscotty all carried my lineup with home runs. Zimmerman and Trout pitched in double digit efforts.

P- Musgrove $8,100 P- Chirinos $7,400 C- Gomes $4,200 1B- Zimmerman $4,300 2B- Dozier $4,300 3B- Shaw $3,000 SS- Correa $4,300 OF- Trout $5,600 OF- Blackmon $5,400 OF- Piscotty $3,300

Main Slate: 13 Games

Weather

DET/BOS game two is going to be cold with slight winds blowing in. ARI/PIT could have a late start due to some rain but they’ll get the game in. PHI/NYM might have some rain near the end of the game but it should be fine. MIL/STL may have a late start but it’s going to be important to check back before lock. Cold in LAD/CHC with slight winds blowing in.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Kenta Maeda $10,000

  • Jose Quintana $9,700

  • Zach Eflin $9,400

  • Domingo German $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Trevor Williams $8,300

  • Luke Weaver $8,100

  • Daniel Ponce De Leon $8,000

  • Zack Wheeler $7,900

  • Jeff Samardzija $7,800

  • Erik Swanson $7,700

  • Frankie Montas $7,600

  • Zach Davies $7,500

  • Lance Lynn $7,300

  • Michael Pineda $7,100

  • Trent Thornton $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Nick Margevicius $6,900

  • Wade Miley $6,800

  • Ivan Nova $6,600

  • Andrew Cashner $6,500

  • Homer Bailey $6,200

  • Jalen Beeks $5,900

  • Chris Stratton $5,800

This is a very weird slate for pitching. I don’t like any of the guys from the premium tier. There’s just no value with these guys.

Similarly, there isn’t much value in the middle tier either. Zack Wheeler and Lance Lynn are the only two I’d consider. I’m going to use Wheeler in this matchup. Don’t use Pineda, Thornton, Davies, Swanson, Samardzija, or Ponce De Leon as they aren’t likely to have good nights.

The pitcher of the night is Tampa Bay’s Jalen Beeks. He’s got huge value tonight for his price and I’ll certainly be using him. Margevicius is the other pitcher I’d consider using. The rest are poor plays tonight.

UPDATE: TB is now using Stanek as the opener so I’m jumping ship on that situation. I’m using Lance Lynn tonight with Zack Wheeler and hoping they don’t get shelled because I love my hitters.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Anthony Rendon, 3B $5,800

  • Juan Soto, OF $5,000

  • Ryan Zimmerman, 1B $4,500

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,500

  • Trevor Story, SS $5,200

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Brandon Belt, 1B/OF $3,700

  • Travis Shaw, 3B $3,000

  • Brandon Crawford, SS $2,900

  • Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS $3,900

  • A.J. Pollack, OF $3,600

Lineup Updates

While there was a ton of confusion on the pitching side with the TB situation, hitters were a bit easier.

I’m using Yan Gomes ($4,200) batting sixth in Coors. I also considered Francisco Mejia ($3,200), Wellington Castillo ($3,700) batting fifth, and Buster Posey ($3,400) hitting third. Ultimately, I couldn’t pass up the Coors catcher.

While Chris Davis ($2,700) remains comically low for good reason, I’m using him tonight in Baltimore versus Ivan Nova. I also really liked Brandon Belt ($3,700). More expensive good options include Ryan Zimmerman ($4,500), Jose Abreu ($4,300), and Luke Voit ($4,200).

I’m going back to Coors for my second basemen and choosing Howie Kendrick ($4,700). That may seem high but he’s batting cleanup tonight against Jeff Hoffman. I also considered paying up for Jose Altuve ($5,000). Cheap options I like are Richard Ureña ($2,900) batting second and Ben Zobrist ($3,100) leading off.

Third base in my lineup is being manned by Nolan Arenado ($5,000). I also considered Justin Turner ($3,600) hitting second against a lefty and Travis Shaw ($3,200) batting fifth in STL if I wanted to go cheaper.

I’m looking towards looking towards Brandon Crawford ($2,900) for my SS tonight. He’s batting seventh but should provide good value. I also considered Gleyber Torres ($3,900) and Eduardo Escobar ($3,900).

I’m using a pair of Nats and Mike Trout ($5,500) in my lineup tonight. Trout has to homer soon right? I love Robles and Soto in the top third of the Nationals order. I also considered Mookie Betts ($4,800), George Springer ($5,100), and Charlie Blackmon ($4,900) as premium options. Cheap OF options are A.J. Pollack ($3,600) hitting fifth against a lefty, Gerardo Parra ($3,400) hitting second, Steven Duggar ($3,700) leading off, and Jackie Bradley Jr ($3,300) hitting eighth.

My Lineup

P- Wheeler $7,900 P- Lynn $7,300 C- Gomes $4,200 1B- Davis $2,700 2B- Kendrick $4,700 3B- Arenado $5,100 SS- Crawford $2,900 OF- Trout $5,500 OF- Soto $5,000 OF- Robles $4,700

Gambling Picks

YEST: (1-2) -0.53 U

YTD: (21-20-1) +0.68 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

DET/BOS u8 -105 GAME 1 (1u), MIA/CLE u7.5 -105, TEX +140, TEX/OAK o8 -115, SD -130, NYM -128

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/24/19

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