Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders. He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.
Last Night’s Results
The below lineup scored a total of 69.55 points yesterday. LOL.
P- Paxton $9,400 P- Archer $8,900 C- Knapp $3,300 1B- Davis $2,600 2B- Flores $3,900 3B- Bryant $4,000 SS- Escobar $3,900 OF- Harper $5,400 OF- McCutchen $4,700 OF- Desmond $3,700
Main Slate: 10 Games
DET/BOS might be an issue tonight with rain. It’ll be important to keep an eye on that one. Winds are blowing in though. PHI/NYM also has some rain involved but it’s not as much of an issue as in Boston. UPDATE: DET/BOS has been PPD.
My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.
Jack Flaherty $9,800
Jake Arrieta $9,600
J.A. Happ $9,300
Matt Boyd $9,100
MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:
Mike Minor $8,800
Chris Sale $8,600
Brad Peacock $8,200
Joe Musgrove $8,100
Brad Keller $8,000
Zack Godley $7,900
Steven Matz $7,500
Yonny Chirinos $7,400
Jake Odorizzi $7,100
Manny Banuelos $7,000
BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:
Chris Bassitt $6,800
Adrian Houser $5,7000
Matt Harvey $5,600
Jeremy Hellickson $5,300
David Hess $4,800
Jack Flaherty is the only option from the premium tier that I’m considering tonight. I like Boyd but there’s some rain in Boston tonight and I like other options better.
Chris Sale has MASSIVE value tonight. The problem is that Boston isn’t safe from weather tonight. I’m putting him in my lineup for now but I’ll be checking the status of the weather before lock. I’m also going with Musgrove tonight. I’m a big fan of the way he’s throwing the ball this year. I’m out on Minor, Peacock, Keller, Odorizzi, and Banuelos. Godley, Matz, and Chirinos have some value tonight.
I’m only considering Matt Harvey from the Bargain Bin tonight but I’m still not likely to play him. The other guys are going to get rocked.
UPDATE: DET/BOS has been PPD so I’ll need a new pitcher to pair with Musgrove. I’m actually going to use Stephen Matz tonight against the Phillies. I know on paper this seems like a terrible idea after what happened to him in his last start, but this Phillies lineup is missing some guys.
UPDATE: Going with Chirinos instead of Matz now to save myself the rain headache. Matz is risky enough as it is.
Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.
Anthony Rendon, 3B $5,800
David Dahl OF $5,000
Charlie Blackmon, OF $5,400
Mike Trout, OF $5,600
Trevor Story, SS $5,100
5 VALUE PLAYS:
Ryan Zimmerman, 1B $4,300
Travis Shaw, 3B $3,000
Trevor Story, SS $5,100
Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B $3,800
Max Kepler , OF $3,900
With Francisco Cervelli ($3,000) getting the night off and Chris Sale’s start washed out, I was forced to take another look at my lineup. Yasmani Grandal ($4,100) is hitting third tonight in STL. I also looked at Yan Gomes ($4,200) hitting sixth in Coors Field. Kevan Smith ($3,100) and Jonathan Lucroy ($3,200) are hitting 5th and 6th against a lefty tonight for the Angels if you want a cheap catcher.
First base was an easy decision for me tonight. Ryan Zimmerman ($4,300) is super cheap for the value he provides in Coors Field against a lefty. You could consider Jose Abreu ($4,400) or Yonder Alonso ($4,300) hitting 3/4 for the Sox tonight against David Hess.
My decision to play Brian Dozier ($4,300) took a slight hit because he’ll be batting 7th in Denver tonight. Still, I like the matchup against a lefty. I also looked at Ryan McMahon ($4,500), Brandon Lowe ($4,300), and Adam Frazier ($3,900) all hitting in the top half of their respective orders.
Third Base is packed with some big names but I really like Matt Chapman ($3,900) against a lefty. I also looked at Matt Carpenter ($4,200) and Yoan Moncada ($4,900). I ended up going with Travis Shaw ($3,000) because he’s hitting cleanup with a ridiculously low price tag.
While Trevor Story ($5,100), Tim Anderson ($5,000), and Paul DeJong ($4,900) are the high priced options at SS, I like Carlos Correa ($4,300) to our score them all.
As usual, my outfield has some studs. I’m using Trout ($5,600) and Charlie Blackmon ($5,400) as my big budget guys. I also looked at Juan Soto ($5,500) and David Dahl. I’m using Stephen Piscotty ($3,300) as my cheap OF tonight. I also looked at Chad Pinder ($3,500) and Josh Reddick ($3,700) for that role.
P- Musgrove $8,100 P- Chirinos $7,400 C- Gomes $4,200 1B- Zimmerman $4,300 2B- Dozier $4,300 3B- Shaw $3,000 SS- Correa $4,300 OF- Trout $5,600 OF- Blackmon $5,400 OF- Piscotty $3,300
YEST: (2-4) -1.19 U
YTD: (20-18-1) +1.2 U
I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.
DET/BOS u8, CHW/BAL o9.5, TEX +130, LAA -105