Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/19/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Last Night’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 83.30 points yesterday. Another really rough slate for me but it was a challenging one. Pineda was a complete bust as were all of the hitters besides Miggy and Castellanos.

P- Corbin $10,300 P- Pineda $8,200 C- Gomes $3,600 1B- Cabrera $3,500 2B- Harrison $3,200 3B- Candelario $3,300 SS- Polanco $4,700 OF- Cruz $4,600 OF- Robles $4,300 OF- Castellanos $4,000

The below lineup put up 99.65 points in the night slate. Somehow that was enough to cash in the 50/50 contest that I entered. Tanner Roark was a great pick while Chris Stratton predictably blew up. The last minute entry of Joey Votto was a fruitful one as he went yard. He, Andrelton Simmons, and Cody Bellinger carried my hitters.

P- Roark $7,200 P- Stratton $5,800 C- Zunino $3,300 1B- Votto $4,000 2B- Lowe $4,300 3B- Arenado $5,400 SS- Simmons $3,600 OF- Trout $5,700 OF- Bellinger $5,600 OF- Blackmon $5,100

Main Slate: 14 Games

Weather

Lots of rain in the forecast today. It’s going to make this massive slate much smaller. MIN/BAL is at the greatest risk of a PPD. SF/PIT will likely either have a long delay or a PPD. I’m not playing any pitchers in KC/NYY as there’s a high chance of an in game delay. ATL/CLE should be able to play but when they do it’s going to be cold with strong winds blowing in. I’m taking the under in this game and avoiding hitters. Gross baseball weather in CHW/DET. It’s going to be freezing but strong winds are blowing out. The winds make it a bump to hitters but it’s mitigated by the cold temps. UPDATE: ATL/CLE has been PPD. MIN/BAL has been PPD.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Jose Berrios $10,800

  • Justin Verlander $10,400

  • Madison Bumgarner $9,500

  • Corey Kluber $9,000

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Ross Stripling $8,800

  • German Marquez $8,500

  • Carlos Rodon $8,300

  • Caleb Smith $8,200

  • Anibal Sanchez $8,100

  • Marco Gonzalez $8,000

  • Jordan Lyles $7,900

  • Eduardo Rodriguez $7,900

  • Marcus Stroman $7,500

  • Ryan Yarbrough $7,400

  • Adam Wainwright $7,400

  • Touki Toussaint $7,300

  • C.C. Sabathia $7,200

  • Matt Strahm $7,100

  • Anthony DeSclafani $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Aaron Brooks $6,900

  • Jakob Junis $6,800

  • Vincent Velasquez $6,700

  • Jhoulys Chacin $6,600

  • Jordan Zimmerman $6,500

  • Felix Pena $6,400

  • Drew Smyly $6,300

  • Alex Cobb $6,000

  • Jason Vargas $5,600

Berrios is $400 more than Verlander tonight and I’m not sure why. I get that the Orioles are trash but Verlander is the better pitcher. I’m using neither tonight so I guess it’s not my problem. Kluber is a worthy play tonight against the Braves. The weather is GREAT for pitching.

Skip MadBum, Stripling, and Marquez tonight. Death, Taxes, and Caleb Smith being in my DFS lineup. I’m pairing smith with Eduardo Rodriguez tonight and I’m doubling down by taking both of their teams on the meonyline. I like Rondon and Sanchez tonight as well. Don’t play Gonzalez, Lyles, or Yarbrough. Wainwright, Stroman, and DeSclafani are sneaky plays tonight if you want to go cheap on the pitching.

Don’t play anyone from the bargain bin. You gotta stack against Vargas and Velasquez but it won’t be cheap. Everyone knows those dudes STINK.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Charlie Blackmon, OF $5,000

  • David Dahl OF $4,600

  • Jose Altuve, 2B $5,100

  • Alex Bregman, SS/3B $4,600

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B $5,400

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • David Dahl, OF $4,600

  • Chris Davis, 1B $2,400

  • Charlie Blackmon, OF $5,000

  • Jose Peraza, 2B/SS $3,100

  • Buster Posey , C/1B $3,400

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Smith $8,200 P- Rodriguez $7,800 C- Lucroy $3,100 1B- Goldschmidt $4,800 2B- Castro $3,200 3B- Fletcher $3,400 SS- Bogaerts $4,100 OF- Trout $5,700 OF- Blackmon $5,000 OF- Dahl $4,600

Gambling Picks

YEST: (2-2) +.1 U

YTD: (12-10) +1.4 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

ATL/CLE u8 -115, MIA +104, BOS +104, NYM/STL o9 -120, COL TT o5.5 +115 (.25 unit)

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/22/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/18/19