Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/18/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Last Night’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 80.95 points yesterday which was certainly not good enough to cash the contest. Brad Keller was a bust. The only hitters that were worth anything were Matt Carpenter and Paul DeJong. Yuck.

P- Keller $8,500 P- Gray $7,400 C- d’Arnaud $3,500 1B- Votto $3,700 2B- Canó $3,800 3B- Carpenter $4,400 SS- DeJong $4,700 OF- Yelich $5,400 OF- Braun $4,400 OF- Soler $4,200

The below line up put up 101.30 points in the night slate. Again, not good enough to cash. Hamels/Gausman combined to score 63.3 points but the hitters were duds. A very tough day for DFS but we’ll get back on the horse today and find some winners.

P- Hamels $9,400 P- Gausman $8,600 C- Posey $3,300 1B- Bour $4,000 2B- Panik $3,300 3B- Donaldson $4,300 SS- Crawford $3,300 OF- Trout $5,600 OF- Mazara $4,300 OF- Calhoun $3,900

Early Slate: 4 Games

Weather

Pretty rainy in Detroit but they should be able to play.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Patrick Corbin $10,300

  • Mike Soroka $9,100

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Michael Pineda $8,200

  • Drew Pomeranz $7,900

  • Luke Weaver $7,400

  • Ivan Nova $7,200

  • Tyson Ross $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Clay Buchholz $6,000

Corbin is a deserving of his high price tag today against the Giants. I’m staying far, far way from Soroka in his 2019 debut. Michael Pineda is a big value today for his price. I’ll be using him for sure. The only other pitcher I’m even considering for the early slate is Tyson Ross. He’s a nice value but I have to decide between he and Corbin. It’s time to check out the bats before I make that decision.

Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Anthony Rendon, 3B $5,500

  • Ronald Acuna Jr, OF $5,300

  • Freddie Freeman, 1B $5,000

  • Nicholas Castellanos, OF $4,000

  • Ozzie Albies, 2B $4,500

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Miguel Cabrera, 1B $3,500

  • Evan Longoria, 3B $3,100

  • Brian Dozier, 2B $3,600

  • Nicholas Castellanos, OF $4,000

  • Kevin PIllar, OF $3,700

Lineup Updates

Yan Gomes ($3,600) is my pick for catcher today. It’s pretty slim pickings but he’s facing a lefty and hitting fifth.

I’m playing Miguel Cabrera ($3,500) at 1B hitting third. I also considered Ryan Zimmerman ($3,800) hitting fourth against a lefty.

Brian Dozier ($3,600) would have been my pick today but he’s hitting sixth. Josh Harrison ($3,200) leading off for the Tigers so I’ll take the savings as they should score about the same amount of points.

Jeimer Candelario ($3,300) is a good play today against Ivan Nova. I also like Evan Longoria ($3,100) but I’m using the pitcher he’s facing.

I’m paying up for Jorge Polanco ($4,700) as he’s been running hot and is facing a bad pitcher. There really aren’t any other valuable options.

I’m playing Nelly Cruz ($4,600), Nick Castellanos ($4,000), and Victor Robles ($4,300) in the OF. I also considered Max Kepler ($4,300) and Juan Soto ($4,700) if I went cheaper on pitching.

My Lineup

P- Corbin $10,300 P- Pineda $8,200 C- Gomes $3,600 1B- Cabrera $3,500 2B- Harrison $3,200 3B- Candelario $3,300 SS- Polanco $4,700 OF- Cruz $4,600 OF- Robles $4,300 OF- Castellanos $4,000

Gambling Picks

YEST: (3-2) +.20 U

YTD: (10-8) +1.3 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

ARI +140, ARI/ATL o9 (-105), DET -110

Main Slate: 5 Games

Weather

No issues

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

PREMIUM OPTIONS:

  • Chris Paddack $9,100

MEDIUM COST OPTIONS:

  • Julio Urias $8,000

  • Felix Hernandez $7,700

  • Tanner Roark $7,200

  • Zach Davies $7,000

BARGAIN BIN OPTIONS:

  • Zack Eflin $6,800

  • Kyle Freeland $6,200

  • Chris Stratton $5,800

  • Andrew Cashner $5,000

  • Hunter Wood $4,000

This is a disgusting slate for pitching. I’m going Tanner Roark for sure tonight. He has good value for the price. There aren’t any other palatable options in this slate unless I wanted to play Paddack as well. You shouldn't play two pitchers facing each other though so we have to look elsewhere. I’m going to use Chris Stratton against the scuffling Mariners tonight. We’re going to need to crush the hitting.

 Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 HIGHEST SCORERS:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,700

  • Austin Meadows, OF $5,000

  • Rhys Hoskins, 1B $5,700

  • Trevor Story, SS $5,300

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B $5,400

5 VALUE PLAYS:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,700

  • Justin Bour, 1B $3,800

  • Kole Calhoun, OF $3,600

  • Andrelton Simmons, SS $3,600

  • Charlie Blackmon, OF $5,100

Lineup Updates

My Lineup

P- Roark $7,200 P- Stratton $5,800 C- Zunino $3,300 1B- Bour $3,800 2B- Lowe $4,300 3B- Arenado $5,400 SS- Simmons $3,600 OF- Trout $5,700 OF- Bellinger $5,600 OF- Blackmon $5,100

Gambling Picks

YEST: (3-2) +.20 U

YTD: (10-8) +1.3 U

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

LAA -115

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/19/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/17/19