Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/17/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Last Night’s Results

The below lineup scored a total of 119.45 points last night, good enough to place in the cash contests I entered. Quintana/Reynaldo turned out to be a great, inexpensive pairing as they combined for 3.57 FPTS/$. Reynaldo was used in just 1.63% of the lineups in my contests. Overall the hitting was very average, buoyed by Gallo and Pederson home runs.

P- Quintana $8,400 P- López $6,000 C- Suzuki $3,700 1B- Choi $3,600 2B- Dozier $3,700 3B- Rendon $5,400 SS- Simmons $3,700 OF- Trout $5,700 OF- Gallo $4,800 OF- Pederson $4,800

Early Slate: 4 Games

Weather

Great baseball weather all around

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

Premium options:

  • Walker Buehler $9,300

Medium CosT options:

  • Brad Keller $8,500

  • Jake Arrieta $8,000

  • Zack Wheeler $7,600

  • Sonny Gray $7,400

  • Michael Wacha $7,200

Bargain Bin options:

  • Corbin Burnes $6,800

  • Lucas Giolito $6,400

I’m using Brad Keller and Sonny Gray today. It’s definitely risky to play Gray against the Dodgers but I really like what he’s done so far this year. Buehler is a little too expensive for my taste. Arrieta and Wheeler are both fine values today. I’m avoiding both Corbin Burnes and Michael Wacha as there should be some serious runs scored in that game.

 Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 Highest Scorers:

  • Christian Yelich, OF $5,400

  • Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF $5,500

  • Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF $4,900

  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B $4,900

  • Adalberto Mondesi, SS $5,000

5 VAlue plays:

  • Ryan O’Hearn, 1B $3,200

  • Matt Carpenter, 3B $4,400

  • Robinson Cano, 2B $3,800

  • A.J. Pollack, OF $3,700

  • Yasiel Puig, OF $3,700

Lineup Updates

Yasmani Grandal ($4,600) is hitting third today but you’ll have to pay up for him. I’m using Travis d’Arnaud ($3,500) today hitting 7th.

Pete Alonso ($4,800) and Goldy ($4,900) are both batting 2nd if you want to pay up for a 1B. I’d go with Goldy by a long shot. Ryan O’Hearn ($3,200) is hitting cleanup today against Lucas Giolito if you want some value. I’m using Joey Votto today ($3,700). He led off last night for the Reds and will surely be near the top of the lineup again.

Scott Kingery ($3,200) is on fire so far this year and he’s in the two hole today. I’m playing Robinson Canó ($3,800) hitting third. Mike Moustakas ($4,600) is hitting cleanup and has value despite the high price.

Matt Carpenter ($4,400) has very good value today in his customary leadoff spot.

I’m using Paul DeJong ($4,700) at SS hitting 3rd against Corbin Burnes. Corey Seager ($4,100) has some value as well in the two hole.

Even though Christian Yelich ($5,400) has four homers in his last two games, I’m still using him. Ryan Braun ($4,400) and Jorge Soler ($4,200) round out my outfield. I also considered Yasiel Puig ($3,700), A.J. Pollack ($3,700), Marcell Ozuna ($4,600), and Jose Martinez ($4,000).

My Lineup

P- Keller $8,500 P- Gray $7,400 C- d’Arnaud $3,500 1B- Votto $3,700 2B- Canó $3,800 3B- Carpenter $4,400 SS- DeJong $4,700 OF- Yelich $5,400 OF- Braun $4,400 OF- Soler $4,200

Gambling Picks

Yest: (2-3) -.28 U

YTD: (7-6) +1.1u

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

NYM/PHI u9.5 (-125) *.25u, KC -106, CIN +156

Main Slate: 7 Games

Weather

TOR/MIN will have a late start. There’s a high likelihood they don’t play at all. LAA/TEX has some serious hail in the area. I’d avoid players in this game when making lineups tonight. *UPDATE: LAA/TEX might be in play now tonight. This is one to follow very closely as so, so much of the value in tonight’s slate resides in this game.

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

Premium options:

  • Cole Hamels $9,400

Medium CosT options:

  • Kevin Gausman $8,600

  • Trent Thornton $8,200

  • Zack Godley $7,800

  • Jake Odorizzi $8,400

  • Lance Lynn $7,500

  • Jeff Samardzija $7,300

  • Sandy Alcantara $7,200

  • Jeremy Hellickson $7,100

Bargain Bin options:

  • Frankie Montas $6,800

  • Wade Miley $6,600

  • Matt Harvey $6,200

  • David Hess $5,600

  • Ryan Stanek $5,000 (opener)

I would love to use a Hamels/Odorizzi combo tonight in my lineups but it looks like Odorrizzi’s start will get washed out. It looks like I’m going to have to spend a little more money and use a Hamels/Gausman combo. Gausman doesn’t have a ton of value but he should be fine. I really don’t want to use any other pitcher in this slate. I’d consider Alcantara if I wasn’t using Hamels. The rest have really, really poor value.

 Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 Highest Scorers:

  • Austin Meadows, OF $4,900

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $5,200

  • Freddy Freeman, 1B $4,800

  • Jose Altuve, 2B $4,900

  • Anthony Rendon, 3B $5,200

5 VAlue plays:

  • Buster Posey, C/1B $3,300

  • Brandon Belt, 1B $3,900

  • Brian Dozier, 2B $3,700

  • Evan Longoria, 3B $3,300

  • Tyler Austin, OF $4,000

Lineup Updates

Buster Posey ($3,300) is an easy choice tonight for me at catcher. He’s batting third and no one else is batting in the top 5.

Justin Bour ($4,000) is a MASSIVE value tonight hitting third if that game plays dry. I also like Brandon Belt ($3,900) tonight hitting cleanup.

With Brian Dozier sitting out tonight there isn’t much value at 2B. I’m going with Joe Panik ($3,300) batting second to save some cash. I’m also considering Tommy La Stella ($3,600) hitting 7th and Starlin Castro ($3,300) hitting 4th.

I’m digging Josh Donaldson ($4,300) tonight hitting second against Zack Godley. I also considered Alex Bregman ($4,100), Matt Chapman ($4,400), and Evan Longoria ($3,300).

I’m using another Giant tonight with Brandon Crawford ($3,300) hitting 5th. I also considered Marcus Semien ($4,200) and Zack Cozart ($3,200).

OF is very interesting tonight. I’m going to roll the dice with the LAA/TEX game playing clean and use Mike Trout ($5,600), Nomar Mazara ($4,300), and Kole Calhoun ($3,900). All have huge value tonight but it’s going to be a gamble to see if they can get it in. Backups include Kris Davis ($5,000), Brandon Belt ($3,900), Juan Soto ($4,800), and Austin Meadows ($4,900).

My Lineup

P- Hamels $9,400 P- Gausman $8,600 C- Posey $3,300 1B- Bour $4,000 2B- Panik $3,300 3B- Donaldson $4,300 SS- Crawford $3,300 OF- Trout $5,600 OF- Mazara $4,300 OF- Calhoun $3,900

Gambling Picks

Yest: (2-3) -.28 U

YTD: (7-6) +1.1u

I’m not a professional baseball bettor but I’ve found some success so far this season using weather and DFS models to cap games. These picks are all risking half units unless otherwise specified. You can follow my bets on the Action Network App using this link.

HOU/OAK o9 (-110), SF/WSH o8.5 (-115)

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/18/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/16/19