Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/11/19

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Each weekday morning I’m previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

Early Slate: 5 Games

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

Premium options:

  • Shane Bieber $9,900

  • Walker Buehler $9,700

Medium CosT options:

  • Sonny Gray $8,900

  • Michael Wacha $8,200

  • Spencer Turnbull $7,900

  • Dylan Bundy $7,500

  • Mike Leake $7,300

  • Pablo López $7,100

Bargain Bin options:

  • Aaron Brooks $6,900

  • Jorge López $6,200

I’m going with a Sonny Gray/Walker Buehler conbo today. If you can stomach it, Dylan Bundy has big value today. Bieber, Wacha, Turnbull, and Pablo López are fine picks as well I’m just not seeing as much value. I’m staying away from Leake, Brooks, and Jorge López.

 Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 Highest Scorers:

  • Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF $5,400

  • Adalberto Mondesi, SS $4,900

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B $5,000

  • Khris Davis, OF $4,800

  • Yasiel Puig, OF $3,800

5 VAlue plays:

  • Chris Davis, 1B $2,200 (still 😂)

  • Yasiel Puig, OF $3,800

  • Jesse Winker, OF $3,600

  • Justin Turner, 3B $4,100

  • Josh Harrison, 2B $3,100

Weather

Warm and winds blowing out in STL which helps hitters. Other than that no real issues.

Lineup Updates

The entire early slate is pretty gross for hitters. We spent a decent amount on pitching though so it should work out.

The early slate is especially putrid for catchers. There isn’t a single one of them that I think will score more than 2 points per $. I’m taking the Molina ($3,200) because he’s very cheap and will be batting 5th,

I’m doing it. I’m taking Chris Davis ($2,200). This is the day he breaks out of his slump! Also having nice value are Jake Bauers ($3,600) and Kendrys Morales ($3,600).

I’m rolling with Whit Merrifield ($4,700) leading off against Mike Leake. Tigers leadoff man Josh Harrison ($3,100) continues to be priced too low. There’s truly not much value elsewhere at 2B.

Finally some talented baseball players. I’m using Justin Turner ($4,100) today in STL. Brian Anderson ($3,000) hitting second has good value but I’m using Sonny Gray and you never want to pick a hitter facing one of your pitchers. I could also see using Rio Ruiz ($3,000) batting 5th after homering last night.

I’m going to go with Marcus Semien ($4,200) batting second against the dinger machine Dylan Bundy. Paul DeJong ($4,000) should be hitting towards the top of the order and he has nice value but again, I’m using Buehler so I won’t be playing him.

Khris Davis ($4,800) is coming off a two HR game so he’s “due” to take a step back, right? Nah, I’m playing him. I love Yasiel Puig ($3,800) and Jesse Winker ($3,600) today against Miami. Haniger ($4,400), Santana ($4,800), Smith ($4,300), and Merrifield ($4,700) are all valuable in the KC/SEA matchup. I suspect Jose Martinez ($3,200) will start in RF and bat 3rd for the Cardinals. That’s a great price on a really good hitter.

 Night Slate: 5 Games

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

Premium options:

  • Jon Gray $9,300

  • Joe Musgrove $9,000

Medium CosT options:

  • Nathan Eovaldi $8,600

  • Zack Godley $8,300

  • Stephen Matz $8,100

  • Jose Quintana $7,900

  • Pedro Avila $7,800

  • Kevin Gausman $7,500

  • Jeff Samardzija $7,500

Bargain Bin options:

  • Aaron Sanchez $6,500

Jon Gray is pricey but he should be worth the money today in San Francisco. Eovladi is in a similar situation for me. I’m not as high on Musgrove tonight against the Cubs. I’m avoiding Matz, Avila, and Sanchez tonight. I’m definitely playing Jose Quintana tonight against the Pirates as he has huge value. My second start is between Godley and Samardzija. I believe San Diego has the better offense so I’ll roll with Shark.

 Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 Highest Scorers:

  • Mookie Betts, OF $5,400

  • J.D. Martinez, OF $5,200

  • Ronald Acuña Jr, OF $5,000

  • Ozzie Albies, 2B $4,500

  • Peter Alonso, 1B $4,800

5 VAlue plays:

  • Eduardo Escobar, 3B/SS $3,800

  • Starling Marte, OF $3,800

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B $3,900

  • Brandon Nimmo, OF $3,800

  • Ozzie Albies, 2B $4,500

Weather

No issues

Lineup Updates

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/12/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/10/19