Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/1/19

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Each weekday morning I’ll be previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

 All Day Slate: 13 Games

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

Premium options:

  • David Price $10,100

  • Matt Strahm $9,200

  • Chris Archer $9,100

Medium CosT options:

  • Mike Clevinger $8,700

  • Julio Urias $8,700

  • Domingo German $8,300

  • Stephen Matz $8,300

  • Sean Reid-Foley $8,100

  • Brad Peacock $7,900

  • Adam Wainwright $7,800

  • Tanner Roark $7,700

  • Sean Newcomb $7,700

  • Caleb Smith $7,600

  • Kyle Hendricks $7,200

  • Zach Davies $7,100

  • Drew Pomeranz $7,100

Bargain Bin:

  • Felix Hernandez $6,900

  • Drew Smyly $6,700

  • Tyson Ross $6,600

  • Chris Stratton $6,500

  • Merrill Kelly $6,300

  • Ryan Yarbrough $6,000

  • David Hess $5,900

  • Ivan Nova $5,800

  • Chad Bettis $5,600

  • Aaron Brooks $4,800

I’m avoiding Price entirely today as I just don’t see value in his high price. I love Matt Strahm but I believe there are better options today. I’d consider Chris Archer pretty heavily today as he’s facing a Cardinals lineup was very strikeout prone in their first series. Mike Clevinger and Caleb Smith have massive value today in my opinion. Julio Urias should give you 5 good innings but I don’t think the Dodgers will push him any farther than that. Domingo German and Sean Reid-Foley are decent values as well. You couldn’t pay me to use Wainwright or Roark today. Drew Pomeranz has sneaky value in the Giants home opener. Of the Bargain Bin options, I’m only considering Smyly.

 Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 Highest Scorers:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,600

  • Mookie Betts, OF $5,400

  • J.D. Martinez, OF $5,300

  • Jose Altuve, 2B $5,200

  • Jose Ramirez, OF $5,200

5 VAlue plays:

  • Jake Bauers, 1B/OF $3,800

  • Evan Longoria, 3B $3,500

  • Kole Calhoun, OF $3,800

  • Marcus Semien, SS $3,600

  • Justin Turner, 3B $4,200

Weather

No issues besides cold weather in PIT, CLE, NYY, and CIN. That hurts hitters a bit and helps pitchers in those games.

Lineup Updates

Danny Jansen batting 8th has me swapping him out of Omar Narvaez or Buster Posey. Lefties Ji-Man Choi and Brandon Lowe are batting 3rd and 4th respectably for the Rays against known bum Chad Bettis. Garrett Hampson and Ryan McMahon are both in the lineup tonight for the Rockies but of the two I can only use McMahon with Hampson batting 9th. Starlin Castro isn’t a bad value play as he’ll bat cleanup against a lefty. As long as Justin Turner is in the top 3 of the Dodgers lineup he’s my pick to click at 3rd base tonight. Other values include Evan Longoria and Brandon Drury. Miguel Rojas is leading off for the Marlins so that makes him worth a shot. My favorite play of the day is Marcus Semien depending on his lineup placement. I’m splurging on Kris Bryant againat a lefty that I don’t trust in Newcomb. I’m also stacking the (presumed) top of the Angels order with Calhoun and Trout. Austin Meadows, Ender Inciarte, Albert Almora Jr, Billy McKinney, and Brett Gardner are all leading off against non-premium or bargain bin pitchers that I believe are vulnerable.

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 4/2/19

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 3/29/19