Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 3/28/19

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Each weekday morning I’ll be previewing the DFS slate for the day. I’ll give my picks to click each day so you can cash. When playing DFS there are many things to consider before lineups lock. You’ll want to make sure each player is actually in the lineup that day so it’s important to check a couple hours before game time. I’ll try and get the Rise and Grind post updated each day as lineups come out. The other thing to seriously consider is the weather. It’s imperative to follow Kevin Roth (@KevinRothWx) on Twitter or at Roto Grinders.  He gives great updates on the weather each and every day. Again, this blog will be updated throughout the day as lineups and weather forecasts come out. For simplicity, I’ll be using DraftKings prices when I reference a player’s cost.

 Early Slate: 5 Games

Pitchers

My DFS strategy involves picking at least one of the top 5 pitchers for each slate. Pitchers score more points and are more consistent on a day-to-day basis than hitters. Even the best hitters can go hitless on a given day. It’s also important to check the Vegas lines to see which team is favored to win. Wins and innings pitched are the most important parts of DFS.

High CosT options:

  • Max Scherzer $11,000

  • Jacob deGrom $10,500

  • Aaron Nola $9,700

  • Masahiro Tanaka $9,300

Medium CosT options:

  • Miles Mikolas $8,200

  • Julio Teheran $7,500

Bargain Bin:

  • Marcus Stroman $6,900

  • Jhoulys Chacin $6,300

  • Jordan Zimmerman $6,100

  • Andrew Cashner $4,500

Scherzer and deGrom face each other so you’ll only want to choose one of them. Aaron Nola is a -185 favorite in Vegas so he’s in good position to pick up a W. I’m not crazy about Tanaka in season long leagues but he’s -375 at the time of this writing against the lowly Orioles. Tehran and Cashner are hard no’s from me as they’re not likely to get wins. Stroman was awful last year but he faces the punch less Tigers. Whatever you do, do not put Andrew Cashner in your lineup.

 Hitters

Lineup placement. That’s the Holy Grail for me when it comes to hitters in DFS. You want hitters that are batting in the top half of the order so they get more chances to score points. The score projections used come from SabreSim’s free tool that can be found on Fangraphs.

 Highest Scorers:

  • Aaron Judge, OF $5,500

  • Bryce Harper, OF $5,400

  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF $5,100

  • Matt Carpenter, 3B $4,600

  • Luke Voit, 1B $4,500

5 VAlue plays:

  • Matt Carpenter, 3B $4,600

  • Andrew McCutchen, OF $3,900

  • Justin Smoak, 1B $3,600

  • Teoscar Hernandez, OF $3,600

  • Troy Tulowitzki, SS $3,600

Matt Carpenter is the leadoff hitter for the Cardinals and he gets the first chance at seeing if Jhoulys Chacin’s 2018 was for real. I like that match up for St. Louis. I am firmly against factoring in Batting versus Pitcher stats to my daily lineups but Bryce Harper has dominated Julio Teheran to the point that it’s laughable (.480 with 8 HR in 40 AB). Still, 40 ABs isn’t nearly a big enough sample for me to make Harper an auto start. All aboard the Teoscar Train as long he’s in the top 5 in the lineup. I’m assuming Mike Trout will be on this list every day.

Weather

No weather news good or bad for the early slate. It’s cooler early in the season so HR won’t be flying out as much.

Lineup Updates:

Luke Voit is batting cleanup behind Judge and Stanton against Andrew Cashner. It’s tough to pass that up. Pete Alonso is bating 2nd but I can’t play him against Scherzer. Gleyber Torres is always going to be overrated as long as he’s batting in the bottom third of the order (8th today). Josh Harrison is leading off against Marcus Stroman and he’s only $3,400 that’s… intriguing. Paul Dejong is starting the year as the #3 hitter for St. Louis. I’m very interested in him today for $3,500. Victor Robles is unplayable in the 9 spot against deGrom. Brett Gardner has huge value as the leadoff hitter for the Yankees against Cashner. Late breaking: Teoscar is batting 3rd for the Blue Jays. All aboard!

Late Slate: 9 Games

Pitchers

High CosT options:

  • Justin Verlander $11,000

  • Corey Kluber $10,500

  • Blake Snell $9,400

  • Hyun-Jin Ryu $9,200

  • Kyle Freeland $9,000

  • Jose Berrios $9,000

Medium CosT options:

  • Madison Bumgarner $8,800

  • Zack Greinke $8,600

  • Jameson Taillon $8,200

  • Luis Castillo $8,000

  • Jon Lester $8,000

  • Carlos Rodon $7,500

  • Mike Fiers $7,100

Bargain Bin:

  • Jose Urena $6,500

  • Trevor Cahill $6,300

  • Mike Minor $5,800

  • Eric Lauer $5,600

  • Brad Keller $4,800

Verlander is my choice in the Ace v Ace matchup in Tampa. SabreSim loves Luis Castillo but I’m skeptical. Berrios is a nice value against the Lindor and Jose Ramirez-less Cleveland lineup. Ryu shouldn’t have a problem with Arizona’s lineup but he’s not a great bet to go deep in the game. I’m fading Lester, Fiers, and Rodon hard on Opening Day. Lester’s stats from last season may look fine on the surface but he’s toast. His only saving grace is that Gallo, Cabrera, Odor, Mazara, Choo, and Guzman are all better against righties. Eric Lauer has some sneaky value thanks to the match up against the horrid Giants lineup. He’s the only one worth the gamble in the bargain bin for this slate.

Hitters

Highest Scorers:

  • Mike Trout, OF $5,600

  • Kris Bryant, 3B $5,400

  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B $5,300

  • Javier Baez, SS $4,800

  • Joey Gallo, OF $4,200

  • Yasiel Puig, OF $4,100

5 VAlue plays:

  • Joey Gallo, OF $4,200

  • Jorge Soler, OF $3,600

  • Rougned Odor, 2B $4,000

  • Nomar Mazara, OF $3,400

  • Elvis Andrus, SS $3,300

The Cubs/Rangers game is shaping up to be a good one for runs as the current Vegas total sits at 9.5 runs. The elite Cubs are projected to hit well against Mike Minor. Not only am I down on Lester, but I’m super high on these Rangers’ hitters for today. Jorge Soler is healthy and facing a left handed pitcher which is a near auto start for me in DFS. Check back for weather and lineups!

Weather

The late slate has two weather concerns. Oakland has a chance of rain but should be fine. Kansas City on the other hand is more at risk of not playing. Not good news for my Jorge Soler pick! That’s ok we’ll keep monitoring as we get closer to lock.

Lineup Updates:

Jorge Alfaro is batting 6th and facing a lefty. That’s… something. Justin Bour is batting 3rd against Mike Fiers. Love that matchup. Ryan McMahon is IN the lineup batting 7th. I wouldn’t play him on the road though. Brandon Lowe is batting 4th for the Rays but I can’t play him against Verlander. Adam Frazier is my favorite play in the late slate. He’s leading off for the Pirates in Great American Ballpark versus Luis Castillo. Ian Kinsler is leading off against a lefty and he’s only $3,200. Brian Anderson batting 2nd versus a lefty for just $3,200 is nice. Elvis Andrus HAS to be in your lineup today for just $3,300. Jon Lester is going to blow up today. Lewis Brinson is leading off against a lefty if you’re feeling risky. The exact same sentence applies for Albert Almora Jr. but I feel better about him facing Minor. There will be lots of runs scored in Cubs/Rangers. If you reeeeally want to save money, Hunter Pence is batting 5th against Jon Lester for just $2,800. Might be worth a shot.

Rise and Grind Daily Fantasy: 3/29/19