2019 Week 1 Line Projections

2019 Week 1 Line Projections

Auburn coach Gus Malzahn ( Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

Auburn coach Gus Malzahn (Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports)

Each Sunday I’ll post my projected lines based on my adjusted power ratings. Use these as the baseline for your plays but be sure to consider the schedule, schemes, and weather before making a bet. I’ll have articles on those factors leading up to game day on Saturday. The larger a line is, the bigger edge I need to be motived to bet it. The same is true for smaller spreads. If my line is -6 but the line is -3, I’ll likely have a significant bet on the game. If my line is -33 and the line is -30, I may not.

AwayHomeKMill LineLine
FloridaMiami (FL)*Florida -8.5Florida -7.5
ArizonaHawaiiArizona -13Arizona -11.5
UCLACincinnatiUCLA -2.5Cincy -3.5
FIUTulaneTulane -1Tulane -3
Georgia TechClemsonClemson -34.5Clemson -33.5
Texas StTexas A&MTAMU -31.5TAMU -34.5
Kent StArizona StASU -24ASU -26
UtahBYUUtah -6Utah -6
RiceArmyArmy -22.5Army -23.5
TulsaMichigan StMSU -22.5MSU -21.5
WisconsinSouth FloridaWisconsin -15.5Wisconsin -10.5
UMassRutgersRutgers -16Rutgers -14.5
Utah StWake ForestWake -3.5Wake -3.5
PurdueNevadaPurdue -9Purdue -9
Colorado StColorado*Colorado -19Colorado -11
Oklahoma StOregon StOklahoma St -14.5Oklahoma St -16.5
AkronIllinoisIllinois -23Illinois -16.5
Ball StIndianaIndiana -23.5Indiana -16.5
ECUNC StateNC State -19.5NC State -20
FAUOhio StOhio St -24.5Ohio St -26.5
Ole MissMemphisMemphis -11.5Memphis -6
Mississippi StLouisiana*Miss St -25.5Miss St -22.5
South AlabamaNebraskaNebraska -37Nebraska -34
ToledoKentuckyKentucky -13Kentucky -13
DukeAlabama*Alabama -28.5Alabama -32
Georgia StTennesseeTenn -29Tenn -25.5
Eastern MichiganCoastal CarolinaEMU -5EMU -5.5
South CarolinaNorth Carolina*S Carolina -7S Carolina -7.5
Virginia TechBoston CollegeVa Tech -2.5Va Tech -2.5
NorthwesternStanfordStanford -7.5Stanford -6.5
SyracuseLibertySyracuse -18Syracuse -17.5
Boise StFlorida St*FSU -4FSU -4
SMUArkansas StArkansas St -4.5Arkansas St -3
OregonAuburn*Auburn -2Auburn -3
Georgia SouthernLSULSU -29LSU -26
Miami (OH)IowaIowa -22.5Iowa -21.5
MissouriWyomingMissouri -19.5Missouri -14.5
VirginiaPittsburghVirginia -0.5Virginia -2.5
Middle Tenn StMichigan StMich St -25.5Mich St -31
Louisiana TechTexasTexas -18Texas -20.5
New Mexico StWashington StWSU -33WSU -34
Fresno StUSCUSC -12USC -13.5
HoustonOklahomaOU -28OU -26
Notre DameLouisvilleNotre Dame -19Notre Dame -20
*Nuetral Site

Notes:

  • How does Khalil Tate against Cole McDonald in Hawaii sound for a Week 0 matchup? I don’t have anything on the side but the total should be around 70. This will be a fun one to get us in college football mode.

  • I hopped on UCLA at +3.5 already. I’m expecting this team to take a jump forward in 2019. The Bruins will have revenge on their minds after a 26-17 home loss to Cincinnati last season. They’ll head east across a couple time zones but this game will be at 7pm local time so body clocks shouldn’t be an issue. I think Dorian Thompson-Robinson is going to have a breakout year under Chip Kelly.

  • I’m waiting for a 35+ to pop for me to take Texas St against A&M and I expect it to happen. There are many things to be excited for this season for the Bobcats in 2019 but head coach Jake Spavital is on the top of my list. Add that to wacky OC Bob Stitt and his former QB at Montana you have the makings of a dangerous offense. A&M is sure to be on overlook for their Week 2 trip to Clemson.

  • Wisconsin should be favored by quite a bit more against USF and I’ll lay anything 10 or under with the Badgers. They will likely have a freshman QB making his first collegiate start though so keep an eye once fall practice reports.

  • I’m all over Colorado at anything 14 or under in the Rocky Mountain Showdown. I was able to grab a -10 early for 2-units but still like it up to two touchdowns.

  • There’s a good chance I’m on Illinois, Indiana, and Memphis in Week 1 but I haven’t pulled the trigger on a play yet.

  • I have a 2-unit play on Auburn -2.5 in their neutral site matchup with Oregon. My numbers aren’t suggesting a play on the Tigers but I expect the number to close much higher than that. (Justifiable) Public perception of the SEC vs the PAC 12 will have the number of bets heavily on the side of Auburn. One thing to consider though: Oregon has an elite QB in Justin Herbert and Auburn still doesn’t know who their starter will be.